When managers, players or pundits talk about luck nobody takes it seriously. In modern sport everything is measured and explained. Players know the consequences of their actions, whatever they do. But there were three games this season when Cork were out of the championship if the scoreline after 70 minutes didn’t change.
In two of those games Cork weren’t playing. If Tipperary didn’t find 1-1 in stoppage time in Walsh Park, Cork were gone. If Clare didn’t score a disputed 65 with the last puck against Waterford in Ennis, Cork were out. What happened in those games can be explained by the teams involved, but for Cork it amounted to luck.
The other game was against Limerick in Páirc Uí Chaoimh where Cork scored a goal and a point in stoppage time to save their season. They made that happen. The other stuff was out of their hands.
The challenge for Cork was to seize the opportunity when it landed. After the Limerick game in May, the perception of Cork started to change. The most important thing, though, was the shift in how they perceived themselves. They had developed a reputation for being involved in great games but losing most of them narrowly.
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When they were beaten by Clare in round two it was the fourth time in a row they had lost a championship match by a goal or less. That pattern had no future. Against Limerick in the Munster championship they proved something to themselves and if any doubts had crept in over the summer they banished them a fortnight ago.
The last time these teams met, 12 weeks ago, they were both in a much different state. Cork hadn’t turned up against Waterford in Walsh Park a week earlier and Clare had self-destructed against Limerick. They were both damaged and had huge questions to answer. Even though Clare won, both teams produced a performance. I’d say when Cork look back on their season, that was the day it turned.
You couldn’t say that Clare have improved as much as Cork since then, but Cork were starting from a lower base. Going long with their puck-outs, and keeping three players inside, has transformed Cork.
Would Brian Hayes have got his place earlier in the season if Robbie O’Flynn had been fit? I doubt it. But Hayes has been a revelation and he became the primary target for Patrick Collins’s puck-outs. It would be wrong to say that Cork are just a route one team – Collins’s overall distribution was excellent in the semi-final and after a Limerick wide Cork’s restarts were very sharp and varied. But Hayes has been the key man for winning ball or breaking ball in the scoring zone.
The matchups on both sides will be crucial. Conor Cleary is the obvious man to mark Hayes because of his height and aggression. Alan Connolly is a big man too but he has explosive pace and Adam Hogan is the quickest of Clare’s three inside backs. Hogan has had a great season and did a brilliant job on Eoin Cody in the semi-final.
In terms of big-game experience, the gap between Conor Leen and Patrick Horgan is enormous, but Leen has really impressed me in his breakthrough season and I think he’ll have the mentality to take on that challenge.
But what will Clare do about Shane Barrett? Over the course of the championship he has been Cork’s best player. His pace, his ability to get on the ball and his capacity to beat defenders is incredibly hard to manage. John Conlon is a great player and has had an amazing career, but he doesn’t have the pace to live with Barrett in a one-on-one situation.
The other issue for Clare is that Diarmuid Ryan likes to attack from right half back and Barrett will be looking to exploit that space. If Ryan hits a wide or a Clare attack breaks down with Ryan in the Cork half, Barrett will be making a beeline for that area.
Cork, though, have puzzles to solve as well. In Hogan, Leen, Cleary and David McInerney Clare have four players who can do a man-marking job. Cork don’t have many options in that regard.
Shane O’Donnell has been brilliant all summer and nobody has really managed him. He did a lot of damage against Cork in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. Mark Rodgers got a run on Cork that day too. Rob Downey is a great hurler and very good under the dropping ball but I can’t see him running around after Rodgers.
Which one of Cork’s inside defenders would be able to hold O’Donnell? I don’t think any of them will. Sean O’Donoghue’s form is a real worry for Cork. Tim O’Mahony marked Peter Duggan in April and was very aggressive under the dropping ball but Duggan won that battle in the end.
O’Mahony did a marking job on Cian Lynch at centrefield in the semi-final and he might be given the same role on Tony Kelly. That would leave Ciaran Joyce to pick up Peter Duggan and, in fairness to Joyce, he did a brilliant job on Gearóid Hegarty a fortnight ago.
But that still leaves David Fitzgerald on the other wing and Mark Coleman is not a man marker. He’s brilliant on the ball and great going forward but he’s not going to stop Fitzgerald. It will be fascinating to see what solutions Cork come up with.
I think it will be extremely close and the game could be decided by players coming off the bench. In that respect, Cork have an advantage: Shane Kingston, Ethan Twomey, O’Flynn, Luke Meade, Jack O’Connor and Padraig Power are all players that can make a difference. Four of them have blistering pace which can be a lethal weapon late in a game.
Clare are battle-hardened and very hard to beat but my slight fancy is for Cork.
