Clare and Limerick have faced each other in a lot of big games in recent years but the psychology of this one is different. The bookies make Limerick very slight favourites, but Clare are not underdogs here. Given the absence of Cian Lynch and Aaron Gillane, and because the game is in Ennis, a lot people are expecting Clare to win. Limerick will love that.
I can imagine the message the Limerick players have been hearing from the management all week: everybody is writing us off. Since this group won its first All-Ireland in 2018, they have been favourites in people’s minds for more or less every game they’ve played. They have learned to live with that.
This week, though, that pressure is off them. It’s almost like a free hit. They’re going to be missing two players they can’t replace. Gillane and Lynch are generational talents who have been two of the greatest players of the modern era. If they lose without them everybody will understand; if they win without them, Clare will have a hard time explaining that.
Even though Limerick were beaten last week, they will take a lot of confidence from how they played in the first and last 20-minute periods. The hurling they played at the start was their best stuff since the round-robin match against Cork last year.
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They were rattled for a while after Lynch was sent off, but once they cleared their heads they got back into the game and came from three points down to reclaim the lead. If the roles had been reversed, and Cork had a man sent off, I think Limerick could have won by seven or eight points. Cork never looked like doing that last Sunday. It was another reflection of Limerick’s experience and strength of character.
If you were to pick holes in Limerick now, you could definitely say that their bench is not as strong as it used to be. When they were down to 14 men they only brought on three subs, and when they were looking for another option in attack, they pushed up Kyle Hayes and brought on Colin Coughlan at wing back.
Going back the years, Limerick would have emptied their bench in a situation like that and flooded the pitch with fresh legs. They obviously didn’t feel they could turn to anybody else to change the game. That is a big change for Limerick.
Some of the players who have been impact subs in recent years such as Cathal O’Neill, Adam English, Shane O’Brien Aidan O’Connor are starters now. If Gillane had been fit to take his place, Peter Casey would have been a brilliant option in the last 20 minutes; instead, he was in the starting 15. Séamus Flanagan would have been another great option if he were still on the panel.
It was a game of fine margins, and you could argue that in their All-Ireland winning years, Limerick were brilliant at managing fine margins. In the closing minutes last Sunday, Cork won that battle. But for Limerick to stay in the hunt with 14 men against a team of Cork’s quality, away from home, was a serious performance.
Clare have only won 50 per cent of their home games in the Munster round robin, which is a strange stat given that it always feels like a bit of a cauldron. I don’t know anyone who likes playing in Ennis.
Clare put up an incredible score against Waterford and, potentially, they have the best forward line in the championship. Shane O’Donnell, Tony Kelly, Peter Duggan and Mark Rodgers are all match-winners in their own right. Rodgers’s free-taking this year has been superb and something like that can’t ever be taken for granted. Poor free-taking nearly cost Cork in the first round against Tipperary. Every team must have a 90-plus per cent free taker. In Rodgers’s case, his numbers are in the high 90s.
The problem for Clare is they are conceding too many goals, and this has been a recurring issue for a long time. Goals kept Waterford in the game a couple of weeks ago, even when Clare went nine points up and looked like they could run away with it. If you consistently allow teams to stay in the game, it is going to catch you out at some stage.
Niall O’Farrell is their new centre back this year. He plays in the forwards for his club and he’s still finding his feet. That trick worked spectacularly well with John Conlon when he took over at number six after a great career in the forwards, but it is not an easy transition to make.
Closer to goal, Rory Hayes gives away too many frees. Conor Cleary has always liked marking a big man, but Shane O’Brien is not an old-fashioned target man full-forward. He will be moving all over the place and that will be a test for Cleary.
Clare will win this game if they don’t concede a goal, but I don’t see that happening. Even without Gillane, I think Limerick will come up with a couple of goals, and that’s all they will need to stay in the game. Putting up a big tally of points is never a problem for them.
After the season they had last year, and how jumpy they were trying to close out the game against Waterford, this is a pressure game for Clare. Most people expect them to win and that will be a big psychological test for them.
But I think last Sunday’s game will be worth a lot to Limerick. I expect them to bring a massive performance to Ennis and I think they’ll win by a point or two.
