In the build-up to the hurling final, you could see a lot of people convincing themselves that this was Waterford’s time. People love an underdog story and sure everything else has been mad this year so why not? Then Limerick came out and told the underdog there was a trip to the vet in its future. No return ticket, either.
Three days out, the football final feels a bit similar. I don’t think anyone truly believes that Mayo are going to win but you can feel people trying to talk themselves into it here and there. Mayo have beaten Galway, who would have been considered a contender. Dublin have beaten the worst team in Division One and three Division Two teams. If it was a horse race, you’d be saying Mayo have the better formline.
But when we call a spade a spade, we all know how far Dublin are ahead here. If Mayo pull it off, it will be the biggest shock in an All-Ireland final in 30 years. I’m not saying it can’t be done – every game is winnable and every team is playable. James Horan won’t be taking a backward step anyway.
When the two teams met in last year’s All-Ireland semi-final, there were two major issues that killed off Mayo’s chances at the start of the second half. One of them was Lee Keegan marking Con O’Callaghan in the full-back line and the other was Dublin’s annihilation of Mayo’s kickouts. For Mayo to make any shape on Saturday night, that’s where they have to start. Getting beaten is forgivable. Getting beaten the same way two years in-a-row isn’t.
Let’s start with Keegan. Dublin games have been the making of Lee Keegan over the years. His battles with Diarmuid Connolly and Ciarán Kilkenny marked him out as one of the true leaders of the team. It wasn’t just that he shut them down, it was the manner of it. I watched other players and teams stand off them and be careful not to over-commit. Keegan said to hell with that and got in amongst them.
He loved getting physical with them, he loved rattling into them and showing them no respect. And once he had them on the back foot, he loved driving on and getting up for a score, even a goal or two. There was a brilliant kind of reckless disregard about him, as if every play was a statement. I’m here, I’m going to ruin your day and I’m going to love every minute of it. Dublin don’t find themselves having to put up with that sort of disrespect very often.
Man-marker
But when Keegan is playing in the full-back line, he has to cut back on some of that. I think it inhibits him. Being a man-marker in front of your own goal is a different job to being a man-marker out around the middle. There’s no reward for being reckless in there. Umpires are watching you like a hawk, your man is looking around for justice with every contact. Worst of all, you don’t have as many chances to make the opposition feel they have to worry about you.
Why would you go solving the other team’s problems for them? To my eye, there’s only downside to keeping Keegan in the full-back line. Mayo found that when Con O’Callaghan skinned him for two goals last year. It turned Keegan from being one of their greatest assets into suddenly being a liability. Dublin went from having to plan for how to deal with Keegan to using him as a springboard. No better way to demoralise a team than to use one of their star players for sport.
Now, Horan is no fool. Nobody knows a horse better than its own trainer and he’d be silly to be listening to fellas leaning over the rails and telling him what he should and shouldn’t be doing. Maybe he has spent the year working with Keegan specifically with this job in mind and maybe Keegan is coming back to let Con O’Callaghan know that nobody takes him to the cleaners twice. One thing is for sure - if it goes like it did last year, Dublin are home and hosed.
We can say much the same when it comes to the Mayo kickouts. Think of Mayo’s two biggest hammerings in 2019 – Kerry in Killarney and Dublin in Croke Park. The common denominator between the two was that both teams pushed right up on the Mayo kickout and caused wreck. Is there way for Mayo to win on Saturday if it happens a third time? None that I can see.
So Mayo’s first job is to find ways to secure the kickout. Clarke is 37-years-old and has been an intercounty goalkeeper since he was 19. His kicking style is set in stone. He doesn’t have that laser drive that Stephen Cluxton or Shaun Patton has. He’s like a golfer that doesn’t have the carry to bomb one over the full-court press. His default kick is a loopy, hanging one that gives the opposition something to attack.
It’s the only weakness in his game. He’s the best shot-stopper one-on-one and he’s definitely at least Cluxton’s equal under the high ball. In just about every area you need, he’s the best goalkeeper you could want. But Dublin are like water, they find a way to seep into your weakest place. So they will definitely attack his kickout.
If there is one upside to the empty stadium from Clarke’s point of view, it’s that he won’t have the big Dublin crowd putting pressure on him. When I see goalies hurrying and changing their mind with a big crowd roaring at them, I always think of Kojak in the car with the fella desperately trying to turn the key and get it started. Try this, try that, try the other. In the end, Kojak just goes, “You flooded it, you turkey.”
The squeeze
It might be my imagination but it seems that there has been less flooding and fewer turkeys in this championship. Goalkeepers either get their kick away quickly or they take their time knowing that half the stadium won’t be pressuring the ref. So Clarke at least has that going for him.
But he will need more. Mayo will need to be ready for the squeeze coming on from Dublin – because you can be sure it will come. They will need to vary their kickouts, using three or four different designed plays to keep possession. I’m not saying it’s easy or even that they will be able to do it. But if they don’t, it’s goodnight.
So let’s say Mayo right those two wrongs from last year. Have they a chance in that scenario? Maybe. They do have a few things going for them that shouldn’t be ignored. For one, they’re suited to winter football. Obviously, the Dubs are suited to any kind of football so I wouldn’t try to make out that Mayo have a big advantage or anything. But it could be a factor.
Think of the best Mayo performances over the past decade and what comes to mind? Chaos. Intensity. Mayo being best tacklers in the game and turning Dublin over, getting in their faces, taking them to their limit, the ball spilling all over the place. Winter conditions make that kind of football more likely.
Look at the Croke Park pitch during the hurling final – for the first time I can remember, it is cutting up under all the recent use. That might cause three or four balls a half to bounce somewhere they wouldn’t have normally. That brings that little bit more randomness to the game. The Dubs are all about control. Randomness isn’t what they want.
One thing that really struck me in both semi-finals was the ease with which both winning teams dispossessed the opposition. Dublin turned Cavan over like they were seniors playing under-16s. And Mayo did the same to Tipperary. If we knew that Dublin were going in here as hands-down the physically dominant team, Mayo would have no chance. But that’s not the case. In this respect at least, they take Dublin on as equals.
In a weird kind of way, the other thing Mayo have going for them is that they gave away so many goal chances against Tipperary. Horan and his backroom team have had time to do the analysis and work out why it happened so often and so easily. If there’s ever a good time to get that sort of going over, it’s in a semi-final when you’re double-digits ahead. It scares the life out of everybody without actually being life-threatening.
Now, maybe that’s just who they are. Maybe their defence is too open, maybe their full-back line gets pulled out of position too easily, maybe some of their newer players gets caught ball-watching at the wrong time. And if that’s the case on Saturday, they won’t be All-Ireland champions. But Tipp did them a big favour by not lying down when the semi-final was long gone. It means at least Mayo are going in here forewarned.
But look, this is probably all a bit of straw-clutching when it comes right down to it. There has been no evidence that Dublin are letting up or that they’re happy to stop at five-in-a-row. They’re ravenous for more medals and most of them have no idea how to lose to Mayo.
Winners
Guys like Brian Fenton, John Small, Con O’Callaghan, Niall Scully – they’re well used to hearing loads of talk about this and that when it comes to Mayo and then shaking hands when it’s over as winners. Thanks for the game, lads. Fair play, ye pushed us all the way.
I heard a story during the week about a couple of the Dublin players at the end of the Cavan game. One of them didn’t pass to the other and they spent the last five or six minutes of the game giving out to each other. They were handing down a 15-point beating in an All-Ireland semi-final and all that was on their mind was to get on each other’s case. They live by their own standards. Cavan were irrelevant to them.
And there’s every possibility Mayo will be too. Horan will send out a team that will work like dogs, that will be physically up to it, that has a scoring threat inside, that won’t be one bit afraid of Dublin or the occasion. And they could still get beaten out the gate.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think that’s how it will turn out. I can definitely see Mayo making a game of it. But if you’re predicting a Mayo win, you’re not being honest or realistic.
The Dubs to make it six-in-a-row. Nothing else makes sense.
