It's been an eventful week leading up to the first of this year's hurling All-Ireland semi-finals with injury rumours swirling around Kilkenny and match referee Brian Gavin having to negotiate a hastily re-arranged hearing in Offaly in order to be eligible to take the whistle.
On the field it promises to be an absorbing tactical encounter between Waterford’s now familiar defensive system and Kilkenny’s practised orthodoxies although when the ball is thrown in, it can often be difficult to see huge differences given the now normal movement of players around the field.
The champions can deploy Richie Hogan as an auxiliary defender, as happened in the Leinster final, and Eoin Larkin drops deep as a matter of course in matches.
Kilkenny are strong favourites and justifiably so, as the higher up the ladder Waterford progress the more difficult they will find it to implement their system. It's like a short tablecloth, which covers one end of the table at a time but can't stretch to the far end at the same time.
It was noticeable in the Munster final that when Tipperary countered by setting up with their own sweeper, it simply allowed Pádraic Maher to pick his shots in splendid isolation.
Dublin pushed Ryan O’Dwyer up onto Tadhg de Búrca, Waterford’s exceptionally effective sweeper but, as observed by Nicky English, if you’re going to commit numbers to your opponents’ half, you’ll need to feel secure about your own backs. Kilkenny could but are unlikely to have their game plan dictated to that extent by the opposition.
Good teams have defenders who can thrive in the extra space and forwards who can do damage in constrained circumstances, which creates twin pressures on a defensive system.
None of which is to suggest that Waterford are doomed. There are suggestions that Austin Gleeson may switch to the attack to provide greater menace, alleviate the reliance on harum-scarum soloing and better accommodate his sometimes over-optimistic shooting.
This is acknowledgement that the team needs to pose more threat up front and some support for Maurice Shanahan, who otherwise faces the prospect of taking on Kilkenny's inside defence on his own, a solitary task which although he's performed it well so far won't be getting any easier.
This disrupts an amazingly consistent defensive selection throughout the year but the return of Darragh Fives from injury has facilitated that and the trade-off is obviously felt to be worthwhile given the danger Gleeson can pose up front.
Kilkenny’s goal threat is obvious but Waterford have conceded only seven goals in eight matches this year between league and championship and won’t be easily penetrated.
Constant threat
Nonetheless the combination of pace, power and finishing – certainly from Ger Aylward, TJ Reid and Richie Hogan – that the champions can bring to bear on a match pose a constant threat. Expectations for the challengers fluctuate between fear that a remorseless trimming would undo all the good work of a season to anxiety that this might be the best chance the team gets. Ever.
The solution will be to play with enough ambition to exploit any chance of winning without the table cloth slipping but enough composure to make it hard for Kilkenny. You’d be optimistic that they can achieve that but less so that they can actually pull off a surprise.
THE LOWDOWN
All-Ireland SHC semi-final, Croke Park, Sunday, 3.30pm.
Live: RTÉ 2
Last meeting: This fixture has become commonplace in the past 10 years or so with five meetings since 2004, all won by Kilkenny. Most recently was two years ago when a cracking qualifier in Thurles went to extra time before Kilkenny won 1-22 to 2-16.
Odds: Kilkenny 2/5, Waterford 13/5 and 10/1 the draw.
Injuries: Kilkenny are still short Richie Power with long-term injury and Jackie Tyrrell is also out but despite concerns over other key players Michael Fennelly and Richie Hogan (right), both are expected to start. Waterford have no new injuries.
Suspension: None
Just the ticket: € 40 (Stand), €25 (terrace), Juveniles €5. Concessions available in Cusack and Davin Stands.
Verdict: Kilkenny.
Referee: Brian Gavin (Offaly).
