Here we go again, back with the annual guessing game that revolves around Galway.
There's a familiarity about the pairing of Kilkenny and Galway in this Leinster hurling final – after all the two went head-to-head in last year's provincial final and notably again in the All-Ireland final itself – but the subsequent turmoil that happened out west means that again we don't really have any form guide to know what Galway will actually turn up.
Galway had a very poor league but then they were a bit late getting back to school. So, they’re impossible to read on that league form. Not that the championship so far has given us much information either, because Galway have come through the easier side of the draw, winning over Westmeath and Offaly.
How much has the championship told us about Kilkenny either? Kilkenny didn’t really get a contest from Dublin who were well off the pace. In fairness, they moved through the gears in the Dublin game and the performance was well up on their league form.
I still think Kilkenny are shorter in resources than in previous years. Does that make them vulnerable? We’ll find out, although I believe if they can put their best 15 players on the field they’re certainly All-Ireland contenders. Million dollar question Galway have shown in the past that they can produce something out of nowhere. Back in 2012, Galway didn’t have much form to suggest they’d beat Kilkenny in the Leinster final but they did. Can 2012 happen again? That’s the million dollar question but I do think they will have to adopt different tactics than were deployed in both the Leinster and All-Ireland finals last year if they are to have a chance of beating Kilkenny.
There’s huge motivation for the Galway players because they took responsibility for the managerial change and they will need to back that up in better fashion than we saw the Mayo footballers do.
The rescinding of Conor Cooney’s red card by the CRC is clearly a boost for Galway.
I wouldn't think Kilkenny will argue at all about that. Cooney is an addition to the Galway team for sure, but he's been out a lot with injuries and he was a bit off the pace on his late comeback last year. Maybe with more preparation under his belt he will be more like the Conor Cooney of two or three years ago.
When these sides met twice last year, I thought Kilkenny dealt with Galway relatively comfortably even though Galway got into a really good position in the All-Ireland final and led by four points at half-time. But in that second-half – a bit like the Leinster final – Kilkenny smothered them and Galway weren’t given the room to play.
The key for Galway is for their forwards to find space. Cathal Mannion, Cooney and Joe Canning to an extent like to have room, to be moving onto the ball. They don't like to be crowded. But that's what Kilkenny have done to them in recent years. In last year's Leinster final, Richie Hogan was the match winner when he dropped in around midfield and allowed Conor Fogarty to drop back and they created an outer ring of steel across their own half-back line and in front of their full-back line.
Galway will need to move the ball quickly, they simply can’t afford to be suffocated like they were last year. The key is to get Kilkenny on the back foot, easier said than done of course, but they managed to do this in 2012 and had Kilkenny’s heads spinning from early on.
Capable manager Micheál Donoghue is a smart and capable manager. It’ll be interesting to see what tactics he employs.
I don’t think matching up with Kilkenny in a static formation, be that with or without a sweeper, will succeed because Galway need to create the room and cause uncertainly in the Kilkenny defence. There’s a vulnerability in that Kilkenny full-back line if teams can bypass that outer ring quickly.
If Galway were to turn this into a game of chance, it could be their best shot. Kilkenny have been so dominant in the air and dominant in the ruck but very few teams have actually tried to play them quickly on the ground. Kilkenny are the masters of winning those rucks, of holding possession and of winning the high ball.
You just wonder if Galway were to turn this into a game of chance and hit more ball on the ground, quickly, diagonally, to move Kilkenny around the place, then we’d see if the Kilkenny full-back line are exposed. Upper hand Ultimately, though, I think Kilkenny will retain the upper hand over Galway. I still see Kilkenny as All-Ireland contenders but, on all known form, I don’t see Galway in that category. That’s the real difference.
In the qualifiers, I’ll go for Cork on the basis they’re at home and they’d be taking some type of notable scalp by beating Dublin while Clare and Limerick should come through relatively easily. The Wexford-Offaly game is hard enough to call, but Offaly seem to me to have the better spirit.
