SIX NATIONS CHAMPIONSHIP Wales v Ireland:IT'S ALMOST like coming home. Ireland have lost only once here since 1983, winning nine times (and at Wembley) and drawing once.
Throw in Munster’s two Heineken Cup final wins, a Celtic League final and the Grand Slam coronation of two years ago, and some of this team have conducted four laps of honour here. All things considered, Ireland could do worse than play their home matches in Cardiff.
For 14 of the 22-man squad, yesterday’s captain’s run brought back good memories. “Yeah, it does,” admitted Brian O’Driscoll at the eve-of-match press conference.
“Going back into the dressing-room, last time we were there, we had some very good times. The first time back since then is obviously going to do that. You’ll always have fond memories of a place that you’ve had big success in.”
How much this counts for remains a moot point, as the thing about winning sequences is that they have to come to an end some day. Admittedly, Wales’ sole win here since ’83 also had cause for them to be coronated as Grand Slammers, and arguably this is the worst weekend to be playing them given they’ve just ended an eight-match winless run with back-to-back wins.
They retained a sense of gallows humour during the run, even playing Queen and David Bowie’s Under Pressure in the build-up to their win in Murrayfield in round two. But confidence has been restored, and having loaded a gifted and more physical backline blessed with individual threats across the pitch, Wales are determined to pay a debt to the majority in a 74,500 capacity crowd.
This dates back to six successive defeats at the Millennium (four against Tri-Nations teams), which suggests there could be a residual mental doubt there, but only if Ireland apply pressure at key moments in the match.
Wales, we know, will be ultra-physical as they seek to tear into Ireland from the start, as they’ve been in all three games to date. And, as with any side coached by Warren Gatland, Ronan O’Gara may as well take to the pitch with a bull’s eye on his forehead.
They played much better in their opener at home to England than they were given credit for. The key there was England’s ability to soak up the pressure and come downfield to draw first blood.
But were Wales to be rewarded for any early pressure, it would get the crowd into the game and, just as significantly, confidence would rise in home ranks. James Hook – a key barometer of the game – and his mates would start to strut their stuff.
However, we know Ireland have an ability to roll with the punches, and having reduced a worryingly high error count against the Scots, all that really remains is for them to improve their discipline. This subject has been worn to death within and outside the squad (and in Wales, too), but one imagines there’ll be an improvement.
That said, Ireland don’t seem to be flavour of the month with the refereeing fraternity, and Jonathan Kaplan will be a central figure in every sense. Both sides will have to adapt to him quickly, and while he’ll allow a contest at the breakdown, and is also aware to call when a double tackle becomes a maul, Kaplan will favour the attacking side and establish a high tempo to the game.
Throw in a few indirect penalties if early scrums have to be re-set, and there is likely to be opportunities for the scrumhalves Mike Philips and Eoin Reddan to take quick taps.
With 14 Lions Test starters on the pitch, there’ll also be plenty of quality on show, regardless of forecast showers. Wales yesterday formally asked Ireland to permit the stadium roof to be closed; Ireland formally declined.
Extra put-ins are not the concern of old. The Irish scrum has improved immeasurably, although this has come at a cost at lineout time in the absence of the human forklift that is John Hayes. Wales have more options, but if Ireland employ a varied and accurate lineout they’ll be well on the way to winning.
All in all, it’s a tricky match to call. Even the bookies are struggling to separate them, with Wales entitled to start marginal favourites on results so far.
But statistical comparisons are valid and suggest Ireland are the more potent team. They have scored seven tries and conceded two (Wales are 5-3).
Declan Kidney’s team have made a dozen line-breaks to Wales’ eight, leaking only four to Wales’ five. The offloads are almost identical, if surprisingly and relatively few.
Ireland won’t have encountered such a fast-up defence in this championship and will have to play with variety. Tommy Bowe looks a potential gamebreaker if served with inside passes and crosskicks from the measured hands and right foot of O’Gara, who is within two points of becoming the fifth player to score 1,000 Test points, and needs 13 to overtake Diego Dominguez as the fourth highest.
That’s the varnish. Most likely the battle lines will be drawn closer in, and for all the improvement of Bradley Davies and Dan Lydiate, Wales miss Gethin Jenkins sorely, while Ireland have the greater array of ball carriers in Seán O’Brien, Jamie Healsip, David Wallace and Cian Healy. (Andy Howell, a go-to replacement option, missed out to Jonathan Thomas on the Welsh bench yesterday.)
It could come down to how Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones, or Peter Stringer and Jonathan Sexton, steer the two ships home, but, from the off, Ireland look to have the better leaders in the likes of Paul O’Connell, Heaslip, O’Gara and O’Driscoll.
Both at provincial and Test level, Ireland have the more proven winning mentality.
Forecast: Ireland. Just. Maybe.
