ANALYSIS:Ireland's success or otherwise will be determined by how they do at the breakdown

I’M WORRIED, very worried and I’ve plenty of cause to be. This England team can beat Ireland. They can do so because they have the ability to dictate the pace of the ball which can neuter the Irish back three and drag us into an ultimate fighting contest.

Many lessons have been learned over the months since Declan Kidney and his staff took over. There is a clear style being developed which marries the slow lineout maul with the devastating off-the-top ball. There is a half-back pairing that can share the load of running the match.

You will notice the flow of ball to Ronan O’Gara is no longer as manic as in times past. There is also a back three which, when given the opportunity, can be just as pretty as the fancy French in full flight. Furthermore, there is a scrum that handled both the French and then the mighty Italians. Not to mention an outstanding lineout. And finally defensively, this Ireland team is very mean, conceding just two tries in as many matches.

However, the English will have also learned lessons. The level to which the English video nerd can expose Ireland remains to be seen, but we must expect an almighty tussle that will have us very worried. Last March 15th, 2008, I sat in Twickenham watching the English dictate the pace of the ball and destroy Ireland 33 points to 10. Much has happened since but Ireland still remain very vulnerable at the breakdown.

On reviewing that match from 12 months ago there were two major factors that can prove fruitful tomorrow. The first and the positive one was Rob Kearney’s outstanding try, the result of brilliant ball-carrying, changes of angle and massive ambition. Ireland had a lineout on the English 22-metre line within three minutes of kick-off which found Jamie Heaslip at two (first decoy). Eoin Reddan fired out a long pass to Shane Horgan behind the backs of Denis Leamy and David Wallace (second decoy). Horgan then popped the ball to O’Gara who had a range of options.

Both Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe ran very hard into the faces of the England defence (third decoy) but O’Gara launched the ball in front of them to the mercurial Geordan Murphy at fullback, who, by stepping towards the touchline, attracted the last three English outside defenders, Jamie Noon, Iain Balshaw and Paul Sackey. Finally, Kearney stepped off his wing to receive the deftest of passes from Murphy and a hard running angle brought him through Phil Vickery and over the line. The lesson, much like Brian O’Driscoll’s try against the French, was once the ball left hooker Rory Best’s hand at the lineout it didn’t come into contact with the “enemy” or hit the deck. No breakdown, no ruck and two outstanding tries.

By the seventh minute Ireland were on fire and led England by 10 points to nil. The second major factor, the negative, took 70 odd minutes to unfold as England dictated the pace of the breakdown, slowing Ireland’s ball to 10-second recycles.

In contrast, England could recycle in four seconds, speed up the game, move the Ireland players left and right and, critically, get their big men on the ball. Paul Sackey is a frightening figure and with ball in hand it’s a fait accompli.

However, there’s major hope for us all and it comes in the strangest of guises. Last weekend I co-commentated on two Magners League matches on Setanta (Glasgow versus Cardiff and Scarlets versus Leinster). Then I watched the Munster versus Edinburgh match, which brought me to Sunday, whereby I was worn out by rugby – and thankfully so.

So to Thurles I went via TG4 and to the club All-Ireland semi-final between Ballyhale Shamrocks and Portumna. A majestic game that produced six goals and 27 points, with the Galway club getting through. The shining light by a country mile was Joe Canning, the young Portumna full forward. The range of skills and inventiveness he displayed was mesmerising. So much so that local farmer John O’Grady likened him to a Grand National winner striding proudly, head held high. For a reasonably-sized athlete he rarely utilises his bulk, preferring skill, pace of thought and a dexterity that bamboozles his opponents.

He can create space at pace that his team-mates consistently exploit. And it is him, or at least his skills that can separate Ireland from England come tomorrow afternoon. Let’s face it, the muscle of England, if unfettered, will strangle Ireland.

Clearly England have all the power, ability and athleticism to spoil the party in Croke Park and unless Ireland mimic Canning and look deep inside themselves and utilise the skills that will outwit Sackey and co, we will lose. For starters, Luke Fitzgerald must be involved every three minutes. He has to pop up in the strangest of places. Like the inside shoulder of O’Gara and off O’Leary at ruck time. But where Fitzgerald can do most damage is in trailing behind Paul O’Connell and co when they are rampaging down the field, hiding behind the tall trees, if you like, ready to pounce. A roaming role, if you will.

I’m going out on a limb here, I know, but I think Ireland might come unstuck tomorrow. And I’ll say it once again if Ireland don’t win the Grand Slam it will be because we’ve failed to dictate the pace of the breakdown, allowing England to focus in on our weaknesses and not theirs.

The England selection is telling, with a group of average internationals but excellent club players who lack a world-class leader. They will be compelled to do their master proud. So to their master, the 2003 World Cup-winning captain, 1997 Lions Test winner, back to back European Cup captain and five Premiership titles winner, who now resides at the helm of England and without doubt the greatest bully rugby has ever produced, I give you this: “It’s the unconquerable soul of man, not the nature of the weapon he uses, that insures victory” (Gen George S Patton).

Ill be there with my dad so, come on Ireland . . .