A WIN against England at Twickenham this afternoon will represent a far greater achievement than the victory there two years ago or at Lansdowne Road the previous season. I say this with due respect to all the players who played for Ireland on those two occasion. Yet even they will agree that the English players could not have been as focused in those games as they will be on Saturday by the possibility of winning the Triple Crown and the Five Nations Championship as well.
Ireland are, of course, the underdogs and that is our favourite position. The Irish coach has a far easier job on his hands than his English counterpart in terms of choosing and planning a strategy.
Ireland do not have vast options at their disposal and will be trying to play a game similar to that adopted against Wales except with a higher degree of accuracy and efficiency. They will also surely try to give the attacking wingers, Geoghegan and Woods, more opportunities to run at their opposites with the ball in hand, rather than chasing kicks. It is clear that we will have to "kick to keep the throw in" but we cannot afford some of the wayward kicks used against Wales.
If England have the throw in at the lineout, they are likely to win their own throws comfortably through their huge second rows. We are unlikely to get away with the same amount of hustling as we did in Twickenham two years when the French referee practically ignored the lineout laws.
England, however, for all their size in the lineout, are less a threat than other countries such as France because of their failure to exploit the back of the lineout both as a ball running area and as a launching pad for attacks.
In fact an interesting aspect of the game this afternoon is that neither side will he regarded as having strong jumpers at the back of the lineout even though four of the back row forwards are 6ft 4in or over.
I would give Ireland a very good chance of winning any ball thrown to the back of the lineout to Victor Costello and David Corkery in particular and perhaps this is an area which we should fry to exploit.
Gabriel Fulcher really came of age against Wales and another good performance from him today would represent as good a season as any Irish second row has had for a long time.
The English management face a dilemma which may in fact be their downfall: do they take the conservative route and secure the Triple Crown or do they go for the high risk option and go for the Triple Crown, Grand Slam and a memorable finale for Will Carling as captain?
I believe that, in their arrogance, they will go for the second option. Many of their players have figured in large defeats of Ireland in the past and will, I suspect, feel that they are capable of inflicting another this afternoon.
Their coach is also under great pressure because of the performances this season and will be anxious to make amends in this final game. He has been openly critical of his side for the rugby they have played, so it is unlikely that he will want any criticism for refusing to allow them to play an expansive game.
England will also have studied Ireland's games to date and from those it has been obvious that we have been in trouble in defence when the opposition has achieved any degree of continuity. Despite losing to us, Wales created sufficient space to score tries. France created havoc when they moved the ball wide and Scotland also caused us great trouble by winning quick ruck ball in midfield.
The Irish management are aware of these deficiencies as they indicated by their comments immediately after the Welsh result. The degree to which they have managed to sort out our defence in mid field, particularly between outside centre, full back and winger, could determine the result.
The news that Dean Richards is fit will give great comfort to English supporters, yet it presents a problem for the manager because, in a way, he has to decide between the tight type of game beloved of Richards or the expansive game which he has been promising all season.
Richards provides a different problem for the Irish management which is, basically, how to keep the ball away from him. This can be done by playing the game at a quick pace and also by rucking rather than mauling which is the Leicester man's greatest strength.
I have a nagging worry about the Irish scrum. "This is not a complaint about team selection but rather concern about the lack of weight of Allen Clarke and the untested scrummaging of Paul Wallace at this level. Jack Rowell has always based a lot of his success at club level on a powerful scrummage and I have no doubt that he will try to attack us in this area. It is imperative that the Irish scrum stands up to this pressure to give us any chance of winning.
Similarly it is important for the team overall that they stand up to the early pressure and disrupt whatever pattern of play England try to impose. English teams in general like to play to a pattern but they are not always at their best when they find that pattern being disrupted.
A win would be a marvellous achievement and would crown a fantastic week for Irish sport on English soil. In my opinion a good Irish performance, even if we lose, is far more important to the future of Irish rugby.