IN GOOD times and even in the not so good when Welsh teams play before their own passionate faithful at the Arms Park, they are invariably burdened by expectation. It is the legacy from the days when the ground was a veritable fortress and the best in the game perished before the famous Hwyl and the men in scarlet.
Victories are less frequent now but if defeat has had its sobering influences in recent years, each win by the Welsh prompts the belief that the good times may be about to return. They have had many a false dawn. But there is again a new optimism in Wales, it was born of a relatively good but losing performance against South Africa and nurtured on the win achieved over Scotland in Murrayfield a fortnight ago.
Thus when Wales play Ireland this afternoon in the International Championship, the Welsh will travel from vale and valley confidently expecting that this match will provide the second stepping stone towards a match against England in Cardiff that will see Wales playing for the Triple Crown on March 15th.
While Wales go into the match on the back of their win over Scotland, Ireland face the assignment striving to end a losing sequence of four matches, all defeats at Lansdowne Road, against the eminent, Australia and France and the humble, Italy and Western Samoa. Our memories are not unstained by recent events, even if embraced in the Irish performance against France there was much to offer encouragement. But elements of that display must be lifted to a new level this afternoon if the losing sequence is to be ended.
But nothing offers greater encouragement about Ireland's prospects of attaining that elusive win than reflection on Ireland's record over the last 12 years in Cardiff. If Ireland had enjoyed the same level of success at Lansdowne Road as has attended the efforts in Cardiff a few Triple Crown and championships would have been won in the last decade. Time was when an Ireland win in Cardiff was a rare event. For instance there was no victory there between 1969 and 1983 and then the sequence was broken when Ireland won in 1985 as the prelude to winning the Triple Crown that season. Since then the Irish have won four times and drawn once. So five wins from six attempts. For all of Ireland's problems in that time, no country can match that record in Cardiff.
That kind of sequence is certainly something from which Ireland can derive confidence. But there is another incentive. If Ireland win this afternoon it will mean four consecutive victories over the Welsh, something that they have never attained since the countries first met in 1882.
Ireland won two years ago in Cardiff, won in the World Cup in Johannesburg in May 1995 and won last season at Lansdowne Road.
Ireland has eight survivors from that match in Dublin - incidentally Ireland's last international victory - the Welsh just five. Remarkably that win by 30-17 last March was a record victory over the Welsh and it came just a fortnight after Ireland had suffered a record defeat against France in Paris. It was against Wales, too, that Ireland ended a long losing sequence that extended over a two year period in 1993.
The man who was a central figure in that win was outside half. Eric Elwood and, while he was not part of the winning side last season, he is back again in the Ireland number 10 shirt. He is a man who could have a profound bearing on the outcome of the match this afternoon.
His opponent today will be a young man who has very unhappy memories of his only previous match against Ireland, Arwel Thomas. He has described that match as his "nightmare" and that it was. He took a heavy tackle early on and thereafter his game went to pieces. He is likely to be subjected to considerable pressure again this afternoon and so his scrum half will do his best not to give Thomas the ball in circumstances that will invite Ireland to get in the big hit.
Ireland would not, however, want to underestimate Thomas, for he has a precocious talent and can be a very good link to a highly talented three quarter line considerably strengthened by the return from rugby league of centre Scott Gibbs.
The loss of Allan Bateman, another back from rugby league, from the centre does diminish the attacking capacity of the Welsh back division at least to some degree.
Wales coach Kevin Bowring has set out his stall in that he sees Wales' best chance of a return to winning on a regular basis in what he terms "the return of our traditional game, the one we have played best, pace, flair and ingenuity in the back line.
By recalling Thomas and leaving Jonathan Davies on the bench, Bowring is doing so in the belief that Thomas is the man to get the best out of his three quarters.
Ireland's new coaching adviser, Brian Ashton, is a very shrewd and perceptive analyst. He will have studied the Welsh tactics against Scotland and broken down the Welsh game. Despite his brief tenure with the Ireland players before the match against France, his influence was evident. Now having had another week with the players, it should be even more beneficial.
I hope to see Ireland using the maul well and they must win quick ruck ball to allow Niall Hogan and Elwood the scope to attack the Welsh.
Jeremy Davidson played very well against France, especially in the line out, and I believe that the Irish back five is more mobile than their opponents. But the maul must be used as an attacking mechanism, as there is no use gaining ground and then losing the ball. Furthermore when in sight of the Welsh line Ireland must strive not to give away penalties by over anxiety or indiscipline.
Jim Staples can add considerably to Ireland's attacking powers behind the scrum and here too, Ashton will have worked on making best use of that. A fullback running out of defence and then losing the ball in the tackle serves no purpose.
The Irish forwards should be good enough to win the possession on which Ireland can prosper. Elwood must vary his game, his tactical kicking must be well placed and used to bring the wings Hickie and Crotty into the game. Under the new laws kicking to touch is now almost certain to surrender possession, so Ireland must seek to make Welsh full back Neil Jenkins turn and make him do the kicking. He is big and strong and difficult to stop when he gets into his stride but not the quickest across the field nor possessed of the keenest positional sense. Elwood has the capacity to exploit that. But Wales with Gareth Llewellyn, Mark Rowley and Scott Quinnell will win their own line out ball and Quinnell offers a threat with his forceful play from the number eight position. But so too does Eric Miller for Ireland and as his experience widens so too will ifs effectiveness.
We have been waiting for a long time for a big match from centre Jonathan Bell. He showed improvement against France and Ireland defended very well in the middle of the field. They will need to defend equally well this afternoon. But I hope to see the three quarter line contributing in a positive manner in attack and to see Hickie in particular given the chance to run at the Welsh and Staples' timely interventions into the attack could offer him the opportunity to do that.
Ireland must ally concentration and application to passion and resolution and must do so for 80 minutes. If they give away penalties in their own half Jenkins will punish them. The Welsh go into the match fortified by their win over the Scots and with theirs - faithful to offer the necessary level of encouragement. If they make a good start then it could be the prelude to victory and justifying their rating as favourites. They hit the Scots with a three try blast in a very short space of time, but the Scots failed to exploit chances that came their way.
Ireland cannot afford to do that today. They must be prepared for an early Welsh onslaught and contain it. It could be a very close affair, with Wales ending on the credit side. Perhaps we are at the beginning of a great Welsh come back. But I am not convinced that this Welsh team is one possessed as yet of the necessary qualities or rounded skills to give substance to that view. Ireland's immediate requirement is a win. It may not be attained, but with the necessary level of application and perception it is not beyond the capacity of this Ireland side to end the barren spell and send us away from Cardiff happy yet again.
