RUGBY:Le crunch, but whoever would have thought it would arrive like this? Moving to the hustle and bustle of Paris, the temperatures have dropped, the more autumnal attire is coming out in the pleasant sunshine but however hot and bothered Ireland are feeling, it's nothing like the French.
Over in Marseilles, the Argentinians are sitting smugly, akin to the aliens who have discovered mashed potatoes and are giggling down on the earthlings still hammering away at the old spuds. Despite their restorative trek to the bosom of Toulouse, France's return to the Stade de France has the potential to evoke unhappy memories of their opening night stage fright against the Argentinians.
Defeat and they will become the first World Cup hosts to be evicted in the pool stages. C'est le plus grand jeu de l'histoire du rugby francais! The ignominy of elimination would stay with these players for the rest of their lives. Your sympathy for them is matched only for those under siege dans le camp vert. Two nations are agog.
It is amazing how one ill-advised, almost throwaway remark in the L'Equipe newspaper during the week has been metamorphosised into a fully-fledged smear campaign against Ireland. But whatever about that, as Brian O'Driscoll intimated yesterday, it has galvanised l'esprit irlandais - and probably more so than anything they could have managed themselves of late. Already they had their backs against the wall, now, having returned to the traditionally more comfortable old role of underdogs, their us-against-the-world mentality has been fostered by another cause. Merci L'Equipe.
You go through the 15 head-to-heads and Ireland need not be frightened, while Bernard Laporte's selection incurs a debt of gratitude as well, primarily in leaving Yannick Jauzion on the bench. A Damien Traille-David Marty midfield combination lacks the same creative force and Frederic Michalak can be flaky. It is an invitation to return to obtaining quick ball and moving it into midfield, thereby giving Gordon D'Arcy and O'Driscoll, in their 23rd Test together, one-on-ones against their opposite numbers. Given the exceptional organisation of the French defence, one ventures that the magicians in midfield - or blindside wingers off inside passes - are more likely to get in behind them off first phase, and from there Eoin Reddan or the ball carries of David Wallace and Denis Leamy can inject the kind of tempo Ireland will need.
With Clement Poitrenaud at fullback, it is also an invitation to pepper him with high kicks. But Ireland probably don't have the Puma-like force up front to just play a kick-and-chase, pressure game, and Ireland's tactical kicking has to improve immeasurably, for we know that the counter-attacking game of the Toulouse back three is way more potent than Ireland's, all the more so with Denis Hickie omitted.
Most probably, we'll have an idea of how this is going to pan out after 15 minutes or so. If France score a try in that time and move ahead, it could be carnage given the low form and confidence base Ireland are coming from.
But one thinks back to Ireland's win over France in 2001 at Lansdowne Road when Fabien Pelous came rumbling round the corner and ran into a brick wall by the name of Anthony Foley. A similar line in the sand has to be drawn early on tonight. As Munster showed against Sale last year, Sebastien Chabal is an obvious target, when the Paul O'Connell-Donncha O'Callaghan double frogmarch proved a seismic moment in Thomond Park. There is a negative as well as positive side to Chabalmania hereabouts. The Pumas reminded us of it when Chabal's briefly lifted the crowd, only for the Contepomis and co to go low and fell him like a tree. Confidence drained from les bleus and crowd alike.
With the forecast suggesting another dry, fine evening in Paris, and no significant wind, there are other obvious key elements to Ireland's strategy which have to be executed properly. The scrum will have to hold, and the lineout provide quicker ball while also applying more pressure defensively, but ominously the French have looked more potent in both departments.
Other things rankle. One ventures that Ireland were more competitive against France with a more aggressive, blitz defence - a la the Pumas. This Ireland employ more of a drifting, defence by numbers, which suits French runners who hold their depth and can attack the inside shoulder or check the drift and take Ireland out wide, while France's offloading game has also been way superior.
Furthermore, Ireland are in "crisis" and while Reddan is made of strong stuff and is capable of providing variety, not all the selectorial changes appear likely remedies.
Unfortunately, form and recent history in this fixture points to only one outcome. One hopes that in their anger and frustration, Ireland can rediscover some of their lost virtues, and maybe even tear the formbook to shreds. Failing that, at least stay competitive and procure a bonus point. Anything worse and it could be a horribly long week to follow.
REPLACEMENTS
IRELAND: 16 Frankie Sheahan (Munster), 17 Simon Best (Ulster), 18 Malcolm O'Kelly (Leinster), 19 Neil Best (Ulster), 20 Isaac Boss (Ulster), 21 Paddy Wallace (Ulster), 22 Gavin Duffy (Connacht).
FRANCE: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski (Stade Français), 17 Jean-Baptiste Poux (Toulouse), 18 Lionel Nallet (Castres), 19 Yannick Nyanga (Toulouse), 20 Lionel Beauxis (Stade Francais), 21 Yannick Jauzion (Toulouse), 22 Aurelien Rougerie (Clermont Auvergne).
