There may be isolated trials for Cheltenham after this weekend, but by and large Leopardstown tomorrow is sink or swim time. Win here and the road to Cheltenham can be taken with a jaunt; lose and the Cotswolds can seem depressingly distant. The ability of the likes of Youlneverwalkalone, Native Upmanship and Topacio to cope with their "mock" exams will attract intense interest, but as has been the case at this meeting for the last three seasons, the focus will centre most ferociously of all on Florida Pearl, this time in the Hennessy Gold Cup.
That is inevitable, even though the list of those who have written him off already is lengthening: doesn't stay, lazy bastard, soft as sh** - you get the picture. Yet something about this horse fascinates. For every negative flung at him, there seems to be a corresponding positive. Yes, he made heavy weather of beating Amberleigh House over a shorter trip last time, but he was conceding 40lb and it cannot be denied he put his head out and battled.
Having said that, the aura of invincibility that grew around his novice career is a thing of the past. His defeat by Rince Ri in the Ericsson finally put paid to that, and Rince Ri's trainer, Ted Walsh, summed it up best yesterday when he said: "I'd say Florida Pearl has improved since Christmas and Willie (Mullins) is happy with his preparation, so I have to be worried. But I'm not worried enough not to take him on!"
Mullins is indeed happy with Florida Pearl's route to the race and feels that hard-fought defeat of Amberleigh House will be to his horse's benefit. He is also keeping the faith regarding his stamina.
"I'm going to stay with him on that one," he said yesterday. "I can't forget how he won the SunAlliance at Cheltenham and the Bumper there also after leading in both from some way out." He then addressed the issue of whether Florida Pearl may not be quite as good as once hoped.
"Possibly so. He was a very good and mature younger horse who achieved a very high rating. Last year he didn't improve as much as we might have hoped, but I've been much harder on him this season and we'll see if that will be of benefit. This year he'll have to prove it and the next six weeks will tell a lot."
Mullins added that riding tactics tomorrow will be principally up to Paul Carberry.
For Florida Pearl, nothing less than a win will justify a trip to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup. Jodami, Carvill's Hill and Nick The Brief are previous double Hennessy winners, so there is a precedent, and despite the presence of Danoli and Dorans Pride, winners in 1997 and 1998 respectively, this is a candidate for the weakest renewal of the race in its 13-year history.
It's the first time there is no English raider, and Rince Ri is the only other young horse with potential for the future in the race who is coming here off a win.
Ted Walsh yesterday dismissed Rince Ri's Gold Cup price of 16 to 1 as irrelevant to this weekend, but admitted: "I'm not confident of winning but I'm hopeful. Ours is a young horse that should be improving and I've been happy with his preparation."
Tony McCoy replaces the injured Adrian Maguire on His Song, who is coming back off a soft palate operation, but it will be interesting to see how Dorans Pride reacts to being back over fences after his well-publicised back problems.
"We don't know for certain how he'll jump, but he ran well at Naas and maybe a freshener over hurdles was what he needed," said Dorans Pride's trainer Michael Hourigan. "If he jumps well he has his chance, but the one thing we can't do is make him younger."
This really is sink or swim time for Florida Pearl. For the time being anyway, bet on him to swim.
Florida Pearl won the Moriarty Novice Chase two years ago and there are six home horses bidding to follow in his footsteps. But the sole English raider, Castle Sweep, looks a better bet over his best trip and after two victories already this season around Cheltenham.
Topacio warms up for the Triumph Hurdle in the opener, but the formbook says he is held by Young American on Christmas running. Topacio has improved since, but it's worth betting the initiative is still with Christy Roche's horse.
It will be a disappointment if Roche doesn't also score with the much vaunted Youlneverwalk alone, while the Curragh trainer can also land the bumper with Risk Accessor who appeared to be left with too much to do on his debut behind Colonel Braxton.
