THE central question every time four clubs square up in the AIB All Ireland club championship semi finals is how well they have survived the lengthy winter break. A team that has found sufficient form to win a provincial title in December may not have held it over the two and a half months that follow.

Up to date competitive form isn't available for this weekend's semi finals but on the basis of their displays to date and general history, it is reasonable to say that tomorrow's winners at Portlaoise (3.15) where All Ireland champions Laune Rangers of Kerry defend their title against the youthful challenge of Armagh's Crossmaglen Rangers - will be favourites to lift the Andy Merrigan Cup on St Patrick's Day.

Whereas it's difficult to compare provincial finals, the achievements of both Laune and Crossmaglen were more impressive than those of Mayo champions Knockmore and Carlow's perennial contenders Eire Og, who meet at Mullingar (3.00).

The difficulties of retaining this title are well documented, but Laune are better placed than most, clubs to defy the general trend. (St Finbarr's won their second successive title in 1981 - not, as was wrongly stated in these columns before Christmas, as a nominated team. In fact, it was their 1987 All Ireland that was won having lost the county final).

Laune's strength in depth is such that they retained their Monster title having made four changes from the side that had won the All Ireland only nine months previously. For tomorrow's match they are able to drop Adrian Hassett and Conor Kearney - both former Kerry seniors.

The break should also benefit Laune. There were reasons to believe they were jaded coming into the match with Clonakilty but managed to raise their game at the end to survive into the semifinals. Now the likelihood is that the team is refreshed.

One player is certainly reinvigorated. Timmy Fleming, a vitally important part of last year's success, has returned after a long break for personal and business reasons. Laune were able to bring him along gradually through training without feeling the need to spring him in the Munster final.

Crossmaglen have based their team on a successful recent tradition at under age level.

Two thirds of the team are under 21s and their strength and athleticism have led the Armagh champions through an impressive Ulster campaign: they beat Burren on their own ground, thrashed Castleblayney and got the better of an experienced Bellaghy over two matches in the replayed Ulster final.

Their tactic of pulling back all six feet five inches of Colm O'Neill from corner forward to provide a third midfielder and using centre forward John McEntee at times behind centre back Francis Bell, congests the middle and allows full rein to the team's physical strength. Up front, Jim McConville and Cathal Short provide a sharp edge to complement the solidity of the midfield.

Amidst the feelings that Laune should have too much craft and too many options is the reservation that they had their closest call this season against Waterford champions Rathgormack, whose approach was physical and knocked the champions out of their stride to the extent of forcing a replay.

Still, the facility and fluency with which Laune move the ball will test the Ulster champions' ability to defend in depth. The return of Fleming improves the holders' creativity in the middle and Billy O'Sullivan's return to a starting place is based on good form in training.

Whereas the dropping of Adrian Hassett is puzzling, given that no injury has been cited, his youthful replacement, John Sheehan having experienced difficulty at centre back in the Munster final, played well in the second half at full back and is comfortable on the inside where he won All Ireland medals last year at minor and colleges level.

The other semi final sees Eire Og going for a third final in five years. On the first of those semi final journeys, they defeated Knockmore in Mayo four years ago. Mayo teams haven't always proved as yielding and a year later Castlebar Mitchels put the Carlowmen out after a replay.

This year Eire Og have benefitted from hearing a different voice, from new manager John Courtney. He has varied their game a little - although the perception that they were an obsessive short ball team is misplaced - and tried to get `Rooster' Hayden and `Muckle' Keating involved more quickly.

The lack of an outstanding performance this year may be due to pacing or dwindling energy in what is largely a selection unchanged over recent years. One positive development is the return of Tom Nolan, wing forward in the 1993 final, from the US. He will be on the bench.

Knockmore have been generally unsung this year. Not particularly rated before the Mayo championship, they have picked up momentum since. Kevin Staunton's contribution at midfield has been identified in the AIB awards as, the outstanding influence on their progress.

Their strength and supply of talented forwards, Kevin O'Neill, Padraig Brogan and Ray Dempsey (imagine if they all came good on the same day), plus the memory of Eire Og's fallible defence last year, give the Mayo champions a very good chance. What tips the balance towards Eire Og is that very ability to produce passages of integrated and productive play.

Knockmore's defence is less certain. They have brought in veteran Pat Reape to shore up goalkeeping worries and there has to be a question mark over their ability to deal with the full force of the opposition.

Eire Og get the vote to postpone this year's verdict for another few weeks.

Leinster's secondary competitions also feature tomorrow with Dublin's hurlers, enjoying a positive run under new manager Michael O'Grady, take on All Ireland champions Wexford at Parnell Park in the Walsh Cup final.

In the O'Byrne Cup semi finals, Kildare meet Offaly at Newbridge and Wexford take on Louth at Wexford Park.