Leinster booty is in the eye of the holders

Leinster Senior Cup: It's a numbers game. Sixteen teams, 15 matches, 10 schools making up the numbers, four with a genuine hope of claiming ultimate success, two more whose history marks them as perennial contenders, and one winner: welcome to the 2005 Leinster Schools Senior Cup.

A slightly fatuous summation of a tournament that inspires blood, sweat and fanatical devotion but in any given year only a minor exaggeration of those schools who'll start Section C, when the elite are introduced to flex their muscles, with genuine aspirations.

Blackrock College are the reigning champions and are strong favourites to claim a 65th pennant. There are a few capable of shredding that logic, principally St Michael's, St Mary's and possibly Terenure College.

Tradition demands that Belvedere and Clongowes are given due consideration while Gonzaga's league crown is worthy of mention. Castleknock are potential dark horses. For the remaining teams achievement is measured in performance rather than results. It seems churlish to dismiss the latter grouping in a sentence but it's 20 years since De La Salle Churchtown (1985) struck a blow for the underdog.

Four schools have shared the spoils since, Blackrock (8), Terenure (5), Clongowes (4) and St Mary's (2) and this year three of that list are tipped to contest the ultimate honour. St Michael's, bolstered by the majority of the team that won the Junior Cup two years ago, are the school most likely to break the aforementioned stranglehold.

To do that, though, they must beat Clongowes and probably Blackrock and Terenure in successive matches and then one of possibly St Mary's, Belvedere or Castleknock in the final. It's a severe schedule even for a team with a huge pack, neat halfbacks in David Rowan and Andrew Cummiskey, a hard running three-quarter line and one of the most innovative coaches in the country in Gary Coakley.

Blackrock's credentials seem irresistible. Eight representative players including last year's Castleknock captain and promising flanker Eoin Mullen, five from last year's winning team who'll form the spine of this year's challenge, not to mention a surfeit of younger talent.

Elsewhere, Terenure definitely have the backs but do they have the requisite grunt factor in the forwards?

Mary's retain seven of last year's team, including four of the back five in the pack. In the top half of the draw it's likely that the Rathmines School will make the semi-finals where they will probably face Belvedere or Gonzaga.

At the other end of the draw Terenure should be good enough to make the penultimate stage of the competition where they would oppose either Blackrock or St Michael's.

One hope for this year's tournament is that Ireland's top officials are handed the important matches. Schools games, playing at a frightening pace and intensity in front of 6,500 people are no place for the rookie referee and there must be an aspiration that officiating is not a factor in any result. The addition of television cameras (Setanta) merely cranks up the pressure.

This year promises several enthralling clashes. Blackrock are the team to beat, Michael's crave a maiden success, Mary's have a little unfinished business with the reigning champions. It's shaping up nicely.

"Ip, dip, sky blue . . ."