Leinster can make it, and Munster will

RUGBY ANALYST: So how many of the much-vaunted Ospreys would make the Munster side this weekend?

RUGBY ANALYST:So how many of the much-vaunted Ospreys would make the Munster side this weekend?

NICKY ENGLISH made a great point on radio during the week when faced with the Kilkenny question: how can any side match up? As a former elite player and manager with Tipperary his opinion is weighty. When facing stiff opposition, he likes to select a “composite” team from his side and the dominant team, and if in that composite he couldn’t select at least seven of his players, then it would be an awful long fixture.

So how many of the much-vaunted Ospreys would make the Munster side this weekend? Gavin Henson? Unlikely. James Hook? Hardly. Mike Philips, possibly.

Overall, few would make it across the threshold, with the possible exception of Shane Williams. That’s one player.

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Speaking of one player. Leinster have a plethora of stars, now with Grand Slam medals, Triple Crowns and Magners League, who will have justified confidence ahead of their clash with Harlequins. But in Rocky Elsom they have a true giant.

Last weekend, as Munster gained superiority, Elsom continued to be outstanding. My eyes were constantly drawn to him and I tracked his every move around Thomond Park. At 6ft 5in and 16st 9lb, he would be consigned to the secondrow if Irish. But he is far too mobile, both in defence and attack. In many ways he’s a bigger, more athletic version of Anthony Foley.

His contribution throughout the season has been extraordinary. In defence, he swallows up the ball-carrier and often makes consecutive tackles in one play. And but for an extremely brave Peter Stringer tackle he would have scored a crucial try. Against Ulster the previous week he was the catalyst for a Leinster win. Judging by the worried signals from Australia, Leinster (Mick Dawson) have a great chance of keeping Elsom in Dublin.

For all the disappointment surrounding Leinster’s loss, but for two terrible missed tackles and the missed kicks it would have been much closer. Leinster continue to have much to offer.

So much so that they can beat Harlequins, but they’ll have to improve the pace of the breakdown and the link between backs and forwards. They have drifted into the habit of having too many front five players offering at 10. This puts far too much pressure on the receiver to be creative and it wastes too much time, as the ball receiver invariably heads back into the cul-de-sac of the heavy traffic.

I recall the sweet Leinster victory over their greatest rivals Munster in the Celtic League final of 2001. The seminal moment arrived when Keith Gleeson found himself comfortably at 10 but changing angle and attacking the gain line when he received the ball. He was able to get outside their defence before offloading to Nathan Spooner, who released his outside backs to allow Shane Horgan score one of the tries of the tournament. That score was against a fantastic Munster side who had an extra man and it was magical Leinster.

My point: let the front five do their work up front and allow the remainder to influence the pace and width of the game as we know they can. For all their bravery, the Leinster front five take too much time out of the ball and at times turn it over in contact. Poor return for hard-won possession.

So what can we expect from the Harlequins? Cast your mind back to the quarter-final draw and the side you would wish to avoid. Leinster have avoided the traditional giants of Europe, but Harlequins are bubbling nicely and they can play. They have obvious advantages, notably at nine, where Danny Care could prove the difference.

Ironically, I feel their biggest weakness will be to play their traditional style of expansive rugby which worked so well in their back-to-back victories over Stade Francais.

Leinster have always been at their best when inside their 22 from turnover ball. Fergus McFadden’s outstanding try against Ulster in the RDS was from a Gordon D’Arcy break from deep. For so long that’s been their philosophy.

Dean Richards understands the Munster way with his back-to-back Heineken Cup victories with Leicester, but his Harlequins players will want to play. This represents a huge opportunity for Luke Fitzgerald (if fit) and co to get into the game. In bizarre logic, Leinster’s victory will come from Harlequins’ attacking game.

Either way, I hope Leinster get through for another showdown with Munster. People will write them off because of last week but, if they can get their defensive lineout very aggressive in the air and keep the slow front five away from the 10 slot, they will trouble Harlequins. Remember, for long periods in the first half last week Leinster were very creative and punched holes in Munster’s defence.

But the precursor in Thomond Park is the rematch with all the clichés to match, not to mention referee Wayne Barnes. With two weeks remaining till Lions selections, it represents a final trial of sorts. There will be big losers on Sunday, but the losing team will have many Lions hopefuls discarded at the final hurdle. I’ll be focusing in on the secondrows, where the Lions Test pair will be found. Only Simon Shaw from Wasps will provide real competition, as I wouldn’t be surprised with Ian McGeechan electing for a very bulky partner for Paul O’Connell.

Munster will win the match, but don’t be fooled into an easy win. Ospreys have precious little to show for their obvious talents and they’ve nothing left to fight for this season, so it’ll be very close.

For the anoraks among you, check out Ballynahinch loosehead prop Chris Stevenson’s 58th-minute tackle on Cork Con’s Gareth Murray on their way to the AIB Cup. Fantastic!

And, lest we forget regional rugby in all this Grand Slammery, the west is truly awake with Corinthians of Galway only two matches away from promotion to the second division. Well done to all those who struggle against the odds under the radar of professional rugby.

Liam Toland

Liam Toland

Liam Toland, a contributor to The Irish Times, is a rugby analyst