RUGBY MAGNERS LEAGUE: Leinster v Ospreys:OUTSIDE OF local derbies, a visit from the Ospreys is probably the marquee fixture of the League campaign. The Welsh galacticos are laden with stellar names and game-breaking players, aside from which there's usually an edge to the fixture, which in this instance is the memory of their win at the RDS in last May's Grand Final.
Alas, this latest renewal with Irish opposition sees the two teams at different points in their cycles, with the Welsh regions seemingly feeling more the effects of a comparatively full-on national training week. Whereas Leinster retain seven of their starting line-up from last May, the Ospreys retain just three.
Aside from his desire to cement Leinster’s play-off credentials with six of their last 10 games at home, clearly Joe Schmidt is also looking to go into the forthcoming European games with momentum whereas the Ospreys’ think tank are resting up several of their front liners with Europe in mind.
Leinster rested more front liners over the festive period, when still extracting two handsome derby wins, with Gordon D’Arcy, Jonathan Sexton, Cian Healy and Jamie Heaslip all in need of a game tonight, whereas the Ospreys were at closer to full strength for their derbies.
Leinster are also doing their bit for their country, for they go into this game with their strongest indigenous side in many years, as all bar Richardt Strauss are home-grown Irish qualified players, with only Dominic Ryan and Fergus McFadden yet to be capped.
In an impressive statement of their strength in depth, all told Leinster make 11 changes from the bonus-point win against Connacht, with only McFadden (who moves from centre to wing), Strauss, Devin Toner and Shane Jennings starting again, in what amounts to virtually their Heineken Cup side.
Indeed, it’s an interesting selection, with the concluding Euro pool games in mind at home to Saracens and away to Racing over the next fortnight. Luke Fitzgerald returns for his first game since suffering a knee injury in the Ireland-New Zealand game, but does so at fullback. It’s hard to imagine Isa Nacewa will not return to the starting line-up against Saracens, given his fantastic form this season, which suggests Fitzgerald needs to hit the ground running tonight.
Typically, he makes his return in the minimum time frame forecast, eight weeks, yet is in a race against time to prove his well-being for both Europe and hence the Six Nations. Unfortunately for him, the forecast does not make for an ideal night for fullbacks, given the likelihood of heavy rain to accompany wind and the biting cold.
Similarly, it’s impossible to imagine Seán O’Brien not returning to the starting line-up next week given his sensational form after his well-earned rest tonight. The one other variation from the team which beat Clermont is in the secondrow, where Toner starts alongside Leo Cullen, as Nathan Hines drops to the bench.
For the Ospreys, Shane Williams, Lee Byrne and Jerry Collins are injured, while James Hook is in line for his 100th league appearance off the bench, but following on from their 60-19 win over the Scarlets and 27-25 defeat to the Blues over Christmas, the likes of Tommy Bowe, Sonny Parker, Mike Phillips, Paul James, Adam Jones, Alun-Wyn Jones, Jonathan Thomas and Marty Holah are all rested.
In the absence of Alun-Wyn Jones, it’s a measure of the high regard the Ospreys have for 21-year-old flanker Justin Tipuric that they have made him captain for the first time in his fledgling but hugely promising career.
“He is a young man we have real faith in,” said the Ospreys director of coaching Scott Johnson.
“We believe he has the rugby ability and the personality to be a natural captain. Just as was the case with Alun-Wyn’s appointment, it is a long-term decision that we believe will benefit the Ospreys as a whole.
“We want to give Justin the experience as we see him as future captain of the region.”
Tipuric provides an altogether different dynamic from Holah, a voracious fetcher and peerless spoiler at the breakdown, though the ex-All Black was a primary culprit amidst the rash of early season penalties the Ospreys incurred at the breakdown in the early stages of the season, and no team has conceded more three pointers of the tee, 41, in the league this season.
Interestingly, on foot of forwards’ coach Jonathan Humphreys’ critique of Nigel Owens for his handling of the scrum in their defeat to the Blues on New Year’s Eve, the Welsh official is again in charge.
The scrum also appears to have been one of Leinster’s primary areas of attention going into this game, and given the forecast it’s liable to be a key factor. No less than the other understudies on show tonight, Duncan Jones and Craig Mitchell, who spoke of his frustrations in backing up Adam Jones at tighthead, this is also a chance to show their wares.
More than most, the Ospreys have the squad strength to rotate and front-up.
The weather is also likely to militate against flowing rugby or much in the way of a high-scoring try fest. Nevertheless, on a run of only two defeats in their last dozen outings, Leinster have the resources and mindset of a team eager to avenge their only home defeat in their last 21 league outings.
LEINSTER:L Fitzgerald; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, F McFadden; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen (capt), D Toner, D Ryan, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: J Harris-Wright, H van der Merwe, C Newland, N Hines, R Ruddock, I Boss, I Madigan, E O'Malley/I Nacewa.
OSPREYS:B Davies; N Walker, S Parker, A Beck, R Fussell; D Biggar, R Webb; D Jones, H Bennett, C Mitchell, I Gough, I Evans, T Smith, J Tipuric (capt), R Jones. Replacements: M Davies, R Bevington, C Griffiths, J Goode, J Thomas, J Nutbrown, J Hook, G Owen.
Referee:Nigel Owens (Wales).
Recent meetings:(10-11) Ospreys 19 Leinster 15; (09-10) (Grand Final) Leinster 12 Ospreys 17; Leinster 20 Ospreys 16; Ospreys 11 Leinster 18; (08-09) Ospreys 8 Leinster 13; Leinster 19 Ospreys 13; (07-08) Leinster 26 Ospreys 15; Ospreys 19 Leinster 26.
Leading points scorers:Leinster – Isa Nacewa 113. Ospreys – Dan Biggar 124.
Leading try scorers:Leinster – Shane Horgan, Isa Nacewa 4 each. Ospreys – Richard Fussell 6, Tommy Bowe 4.
Betting (Paddy Power):1/6 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 7/2 Ospreys. Handicap odds (Ospreys +11 pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ospreys.
Forecast:Leinster to win.
Close Encounters: The last three meetings
November 28th, 2010
Magners League
Liberty Stadium
Ospreys 19 Leinster 15
Despite outscoring the Ospreys by two tries to one, Leinster’s six-match winning run ended on a freezing cold Sunday in Swansea thanks to a 14-point haul by Dan Biggar and a penalty try, which seemingly still haunts Mike Ross and Johnno Gibbes, even if Leinster were down to seven forwards and 13 men at the time.
May 29th , 2010
Magners League Grand Final
RDS
Leinster 12 Ospreys 17
A fortnight after beating Munster, this was an anti-climactic, forced and error-strewn finale to the Michael Cheika era at Leinster. The Ospreys should have been out of sight at half-time but even so, with Dan Biggar the creator in chief, first-half tries by Tommy Bowe and Lee Byrne left Leinster with too much of a mountain to climb.
April 16th, 2010
Magners League
RDS
Leinster 20 Ospreys 16
A week after Leinster’s epic Euro quarter-final win over Clermont, and with the Ospreys playing their third game on Irish soil in a week, neither were at their best. Leinster rolled with the punches and a 16-point first-half haul by Dan Biggar to overcome a tiring Ospreys through Shaune Berne’s well-taken try and Fergus McFadden’s boot.
