Leinster v Ospreys:The Irish provinces have copped a fair amount of flak over the years for denuding the Magners League, but, as the league leaders Leinster host the reigning champions from the Ospreys in the RDS this evening, there is further evidence that nothing is undermining the competition more than the gravy train that is the Anglo-Welsh Cup.
Whereas the league is by some way Leinster's primary chance of silverware and a degree of redemption, it is clear that the tournament has fallen down the champions' list of priorities. In eight league games they have won just three, none of them on the road and with only Connacht scoring fewer tries, whereas in the Heineken and Anglo-Welsh Cups they have won six out of seven.
Facing into their 17th competitive fixture of the season on three fronts, the Ospreys were obliged to play two games over Christmas, in part because they have reached the Anglo-Welsh Cup semi-finals. Hence, with one eye on next Saturday's crunch, season-defining European Cup tie at home to Gloucester, Lyn Jones has juggled his resources. And while those resources are considerable, making 13 changes from the team which beat Cardiff on New Year's Eve, after defeat to Llanelli four nights earlier, seriously tests even the Ospreys' considerable reserves.
Winger Nikki Walker and prop Paul James are the only survivors, and in effect Walker is their only first-choice player based on the unchanged side that recorded back-to-back wins over Ulster. Sonny Parker (knee), Gavin Henson (hand), Mark Taylor (hamstring) and Shane Williams (leg) are all deemed hors de combat, but hope to be available for the Gloucester set-to.
Presumably, their leading try scorer Lee Byrne, James Hook, Justin Marshall, Duncan Jones, Huw Bennett, Adam Jones, Alun Wyne-Jones, Ian Evans, Ian Gough, Jonathan Thomas, Marty Holan, Filo Tiatia and Ryan Jones have all been rested. Andrew Bishop broke a thumb playing against the Blues and will be out for six to eight weeks.
"The team we have selected has a mix of experience and potential and we field a pack of forwards that we are confident are right for this encounter," said Jones yesterday. "Fixtures against Leinster are always great footballing occasions and once again we hope to see a firm controlling influence from the man in the middle."
Ditto Leinster. Helped by the Ospreys' slightly dilettante attitude to their treks to Dublin in recent years, Leinster have a pretty decent record against the Welsh outfit in recent times, winning three of the last four encounters, but their sole, title-defining defeat by 19-17 at the Liberty Stadium last season was due in no small measure to several dubious decisions from touch judge Nigel Owens and referee Paul Allen, whose penalty count was 13-5 to the home side. The Scottish official takes charge again tonight.
Although Leinster will want to put their best foot forward against the Toulouse aristocrats next weekend, in the circumstances Michael Cheika has the opportunity to remove some of the splinters from the rears of his regular if underused "benchmen" this season. Richly promising loose-head Cian Healy starts his first game after four appearances from the bench and Brian Blaney is granted only a second start of the season after a dozen stints as a replacement had yielded 10 increasingly smaller bit parts, so to speak.
Likewise, Cameron Jowitt makes only his second start amid eight substitute cameos and Chris Keane is granted a first start after five appearances as a replacement. In the midst of all this, Keith Gleeson - outstanding in the win over Ulster and easily Leinster's best source of continuity in a hitherto limited offloading game - must be scratching his head at being "rotated" onto the bench again, where he is joined by Trevor Hogan, returning after being sidelined since early September, with Leo Cullen earning a well-deserved rest.
The most interesting change in what has been a strangely toothless back line sees Brian O'Driscoll return to captain the side after missing last week's 29-0 victory over Ulster, for he will partner Felipe Contepomi at centre, with Jonathan Sexton continuing at outhalf after impressing in that win. Hence, Gordon D'Arcy is on a strong-looking bench. The seventh change sees Gary Brown on the right wing for his first start since early September in place of Rob Kearney, who picked up a slight knock in training. Kearney will be disappointed - he has scored five tries in the last five meetings with the Ospreys.
Over 13,000 tickets have been sold for this game and thus Leinster are set to maintain their remarkable average home attendance of 15,175 at the RDS this season. The supporters' loyalty ought to be rewarded with reasonably favourable conditions and by Leinster turning the screw and turning on the style.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; G Brown, B O'Driscoll (capt), F Contepomi, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, C Keane; C Healy, B Blaney, S Wright, C Jowitt, M O'Kelly, S Keogh, S Jennings, J Heaslip.
Replacements: B Jackman, S Knoop, T Hogan, K Gleeson, G Easterby, G D'Arcy, C Warner.
OSPREYS: J Vaughton; N Walker, G Owen, J Spratt, A Brew; S Connor, M Phillips; P James (capt), R Hibbard, C Griffiths, L Bateman, A Llloyd, H T-Pole, B Lewis, T Smith.
Replacements: E Shervington, A Millward, A W Jones, F Tiatia, S Tandy, M Roberts, A Thomas.
Last five meetings: (05-06) Ospreys 22 Leinster 20; Leinster 38 Opreys 21; (06-07) Leinster 42 Ospreys 22; Ospreys 19 Leinster 17; (07-08) Ospreys 19 Leinster 26.
Five-game ML formguide: Leinster - D W W W W. Ospreys - D W L L W. Leading ML try scorers: Leinster - Luke Fitzgerald, Gordon D'Arcy, Jamie Heaslip 3 each. Ospreys - Lee Byrne 3.
Leading points scorers: Leinster - Jonathan Sexton 59, Felipe Contepomi 40. Ospreys - Shaun Connor 74, James Hook 29.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 1/20 Leinster, 33/1 Draw, 7/1 Ospreys. Handicap betting (Ospreys +18pts) 10/11 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ospreys.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
