Analysis:Just meeting the Springboks head on-on won't be enough: the Lions must vary their play
I watched Stephen Jones’ last-ditch penalty attempt in the Millennium Stadium again this week. Once again it confirmed how cruel sport can be. I wonder if that ball was two feet higher and made it through the posts would Ian McGeechan’s Lions squad have a different hue. Jones missed the kick and Ireland won the Grand Slam and deservedly travel as major shareholders to South Africa.
My earliest memories of the Lions are sketchy at best, but David Campese certainly stands out. That was way back in 1989 when Campo famously lost the series. It was magical nonetheless and memories of his famous goose-stepping are as clear today. But he did concede that famous soft try to the Lions in the third Test. The Lions expect nothing soft in South Africa.
Over the decades the Springboks have produced any amount of Minotaurs, always physical and powerful. It’s frightening to think that Schalk Willem Petrus Burger Jnr only turned 26 last month. Amazingly Burger made his Test debut in 2004 aged 20, one year before becoming IRB Player of the Year. And worryingly there are lots of Burgers in South Africa. So I hope the Lions are hungry!
If McGeechan plans to take them on head-on, the Lions will lose. South Africa also produces speedsters, so simple pace alone will not beat them. Therefore it should be a rolling combination of both. If Leinster proved anything in their semi-final victory over Munster, it was that it takes a blend of play to beat the bully. They need to match the Springboks’ massive physicality in the corridor of power and at the breakdown and then to turn on the magic.
Therefore McGeechan’s influence is crucial where the fate of this Test series lies completely on the battle of the coaches. The Springboks coach Peter de Villiers represents the Lions’ best opportunity. Interestingly, South Africa have only won the Tri-Nations twice since the last Lions tour, with the latest being in 2004 (Burger’s debut season). To add to this, the Springboks’ preparation can’t be going to plan when so many key players are lying injured. But their warm-up game may cause concern. Namibia in Windhoek on May 29th may see Sébastien Chabal and Percy Montgomery (South Africa’s new kicking coach) togging out for Namibia.
McGeechan proved in 1997 that he can change plan mid-tour. Three weeks from the first Test all changed. The Lions lost to the Blue Bulls. The expected Lions Test team, dominated by a powerful English pack, struggled in the front five and in the scrum and lost that night. Only two of that pack survived to the first Test, Martin Johnson and Lawrence Dallaglio. And along came Tom Smith, Keith Wood, Paul Wallace and Jeremy Davidson and with them a whole new set of tactics.
That is why leaving a player like James Hook behind is puzzling; made even more so with only two specialist outhalves on board. They will be required to tog out for every game and if they are stagnant, where will the magic come from? The Springboks displayed plenty of magic in the Autumn Series against England with pace, power and skill. Back on October 20th, 2007, they also managed to win the William Web Ellis Trophy by soaking up the English one-trick-pony that came up short where no amount of muscle could match the Springboks.
If the coaches have the major bearing on events then the front row are right behind them. Peter de Villiers may be forced into accommodating two hookers in the front row where both Bismarck du Plessis and their record-breaking captain John William Smit have played both hooker and prop for South Africa. I was in Galway’s Sportsground in 2007 when du Plessis stormed Connacht. He is a fantastic ball carrier and a brute to boot. However, although it may work for the Sharks at Super 14 level, two hookers in the Springbok front row will weaken their advantage.
The Lions will win out in the lineout depending on their backrow selection. Lions Test selection is almost impossible to predict but, in the microcosm of the backrow, balance is key. The breakdown along with the scrum will influence the outcome. That’s assuming the lineouts nullify each other. David Wallace must start, so too Stephen Ferris, therefore they’ll need another aerial option. The Lions will need a fast off the ground game to out-think the Springboks, which Martyn Williams suits perfectly. This will then push Wallace to number eight, probably his most natural position. Which leaves the blindside and Ferris is front runner. Burger versus Ferris!
The Springboks have a definite advantage with the tour schedule. De Villiers must be giggling ever so slightly with the route he’s planned for the Lions. You can plot their journey on the excellent Lions site (www.lionsrugby.com). As the competition reaches its climax the Lions will find themselves at sea level for the first Test in Durban and then at the heights of Pretoria and Johannesburg.
I assume McGeechan will dispatch his midweek team alone to Cape Town for their final game against the Emerging Springboks before the second Test and, if so, will they send both outhalves. A word of warning for those not convinced about the altitude challenges. South Africa lost to Australia at home in Durban in the Tri-Nations last August by 15-27. Seven days later, at higher altitude in Johannesburg, they managed to hammer Australia by 53-8.
Regardless of altitude and selection, tour camaraderie is vital. A coach once asked me my advice on raising team morale, which was very low at the time. His time was at a premium so I suggested that, if he wanted team spirit built fast, then the quickest method is a fancy dress party with lots of drink. Everyone will make an eejit of themselves and barriers will fall.
A word of warning to our large Irish complement: In 1997 there were 17 English in the original 35-man selection; only six made it to the first Test. There will be lots of movement come Test time and I expect the Welsh to have a large influence on proceedings. This brings me to the young cubs of the pride. Keith Earls and co should remember that in 1997 a very innocent Jeremy Davidson, aged 23 and fourth choice second row, made three Test starts and won the players’ Player of the Tour award.
