OLYMPIC GAMES/2012 City shortlist: London is capable of staging the Olympic Games in 2012, but first it must convince Londoners, an influential Games committee warned last night.
The English capital was one of five applicants to be shortlisted as a candidate city by the International Olympic Committee at a meeting in Lausanne yesterday. Madrid, Moscow, New York and Paris joined them.
But IOC members who assessed London's bid queried how much support there was really for the bid in Britain. London 2012 officials claimed 82 per cent of Londoners were behind the bid, but a private poll carried out by the Lords of the Rings found the figure to be significantly less.
"The IOC poll is lower with 67 per cent in favour, 13 per cent against. The main reasons for opposition are concerns about the cost and traffic," said the report.
"It is vital that we engage with the British public to ensure that our plans fully reflect their needs and wishes and that they understand the potential impact of a successful bid," said Sebastian Coe, a double Olympic 1500 metres champion and vice-chairman of London's bid.
The biggest shock was Rio de Janeiro, considered the dark horses due to the fact South America has never staged the Olympics, did not make the cut along with Havana, Istanbul and Leipzig. The IOC executive board trimmed the field based on a report assessing the technical capabilities of the nine cities. London scored relatively poorly and overall was ranked only equal third with New York behind the favourites Paris and Madrid.
The assessment report established ranking criteria in 11 categories. These ranged from government support to what legacy the Olympics would leave.
London came top in only one section - accommodation, where it was ranked equal first with New York and Paris.
Embarrassingly for the government, when it came to experience in staging past sporting events it ranked only equal sixth with Leipzig. It also scored poorly in its Olympic Village plans and transport, but officials are not troubled.
"There are 10 lines at Stratford." said Neale Coleman, special adviser to the London Mayor Ken Livingstone. "Sydney, when it hosted the Games in 2000, had only one."
London did score highly in environmental conditions and impact - something that has become increasingly important to IOC members - as well as security and finance. What will boost London officials is that these scores are based solely on the questionnaires the bidding cities submitted in January; cities that have performed poorly in the past have gone on to win, most notably Athens seven years ago.
The candidates have six months in which to compile their full bid dossiers to be submitted to the IOC by November 15th. These will be subjected to intense scrutiny before the IOC evaluation commission visits each city next February and March. The commission's report will be distributed to IOC members next May ahead of the final vote by the full membership in Singapore on July 6th, 2005.
"Today marks the beginning of a new and critical phase in our voyage towards the 2012 London Olympic Games," said Barbara Cassani, the chair of London's bid. "For the next six months we will be intensely active on all fronts to ensure that we submit the best possible dossier to the IOC in November."
Rio de Janeiro's shock failure to make the short list at the expense of Moscow could change the entire voting process, Coe has warned.
"I am surprised," said Coe. "I spoke to probably about half-a-dozen International Olympic Committee members in Lausanne on Monday who are all pretty well connected and all thought Rio would make it.
"They've been pretty strict on the criteria and not let emotion or any political considerations colour the decision," said Coe. "On that strict analysis Rio may not have come up to the line."
Moscow was expected to be among those who faced the cut but just managed to squeeze through to the short list. The Soviet Union may have broken up but Russia still retains huge support among former states due to the amount of structural funding it gives them.
"We will have to look quite closely at voting patterns and see how it has affected some of the block voting," admitted Coe.
The final decision in Singapore on July 6th, 2005, could go to three or four votes. That will mean the second choice among the 126 IOC members will be particularly important as their preferred candidate drops out.
Moscow is not expected to be among the final candidates and that is where London could score highly among eastern European members whose votes they will be seeking to collect when the Russian capital drops out.
"It's important everyone makes London their second choice," said Coe. "That's where you have to take people into the comfort zone. Everyone will be coming to the table with what they think is a very good bid.
"To get across the line there's got to be other things in place. The decision will be determined by who they think will deliver a Games and who do they think they are going to be the most comfortable working with for seven years."
"Today marks the point where the race gets serious. Paris 2012 is very serious," said Philippe Baudillon, the Paris bid leader.
"The fact there is no obvious front runner makes it more interesting," said Coe. "These are big cities who are going to come to the table with good bids."
Although London had been considered a certainty to make the final selection, the relief of the bid team was palpable. Keith Mills, the bid's executive director, said building enthusiasm throughout the country was now paramount.
"This announcement marks a new phase and one of the most important things we have to do over the next 12 months is to capture people's imagination," he said. "Unless we have a really enthusiastic public, it will be much more difficult to convince the IOC that London is the place to be."
The IOC president Jacques Rogge warned a further cull could take place if the next evaluation reveals serious shortcomings. "What we have done is to retain five cities which we believe can deliver," he said. "But there is a possibility we can still remove one or more next May."
Rio's elimination was a "monstrous surprise" and a "political" decision, according to its bid leaders as the city reflected on whether its soaring crime rate was a decisive factor.
Brasilia pulled out of the 2000 Olympics race before the final vote. "It wasn't just a bucket of cold water, it was a complete shower," said the Brazilian Olympic committee's technical director Marcus Vinicius Freire. "Brazil had a very well-designed project and we didn't expect this at all."
Mike de Vries, general manager of the Leipzig campaign, revealed his city of 500,000 people, which had cited its size as an advantage, was "deeply disappointed" to miss out.
Olympics2012 Timetable
August 13th, 2004: The five cities shortlisted as candidates for the 2012 Olympics - London, Paris, New York, Madrid and Moscow - will each send a team to observe the Games in Athens this summer.
November 15th, 2004: Deadline for each city to submit a "candidature file" - detailed plans of their bids - to the International Olympic Committee (IOC).
February/March 2005: Each file analysed in detail by an IOC Evaluation Commission who will visit each of the candidate cities.
June 2005: IOC Evaluation Commission issue report
July 2005: Final decision by on the full IOC membership during the 117th IOC Session in Singapore.
