Cork v Kerry, Killarney, 4.05 (Network 2)

It's a little unusual that defending champions Cork are going into tomorrow's Munster semi-final in Killarney as even more distant outsiders than they were when ambushing Kerry in last year's final.

This year it's hard to back Cork because nearly everything which went well for them then is less likely a year on. Even the weather isn't expected to repeat the downpour which militated so much against Kerry last year. The motivational imbalance no longer applies and the home side should be far more roused than a year ago. Cork's defence is going through something of a confidence crisis at the moment with only Ciaran O'Sullivan and Owen Sexton in last year's form.

Martin Cronin had a hard time from Limerick's Pat Aherne and the full-back line - effective if not exactly unquestioned last year - is looking less formidable with Ronan McCarthy and Anthony Lynch just back from illness and injury. Even Micheal O'Donovan, a victim of injury during the championship run but the outstanding defender in last year's league win, is going through a bad phase.

Centrefield has been changed which is a break from last year, with Fachtna Collins partnering Nicholas Murphy. Murphy and Micheal O'Sullivan might have looked vulnerable before every match last year but not even Meath established a dominant hold against them. Admittedly Dara O Se was unwell during last year's match but his good health is hardly a reason for Cork to feel better about the sector.

Of the attack which did well a year ago, only Philip Clifford can be relied on to deliver again but the return of Aidan Dorgan and Steven O'Brien who both troubled Kerry in the 1997 league final is positive.

Kerry have their own problems. The selection of Seamus Moynihan at full back raised the most eyebrows. It's only four years since the county discovered the hard way with Mike Hassett that a good half back doesn't necessarily make a good full back. There is the strong possibility that there's no intention of wasting Moynihan in such a restrictive role but if the switch is a dummy, it's been well rehearsed at recent training matches.

Cork's Steven O'Brien brings physique and intelligence to full forward but with such diminished mobility that it's scarcely believable that Kerry will sacrifice their most influential outfield player to mark him.

Kerry's attack looks a lot more productive, particularly if Cork's defence is not in the best of form, and that will be enough to settle matters.