Michael Cheika may pay for not having an obvious replacement for his injured pivot. writes LIAM TOLAND, Rugby Analyst
IF 2009 was certainly the “Year of the Jackal” December is now closing it as the “Battle of the Tens”.
Matt Giteau was to make a surprise appearance in Donnybrook. It was just seven months ago that Jonny Sexton was very much learning his trade before he took off his tracksuit in Croke Park and casually converted a pressure penalty against Munster. Felipe Contepomi’s departure was natural and the circle was completed by Sexton’s ability to meet opportunity with preparation.
Events since have catapulted him back into Croke Park and a key role in defeating the world champions. But who was to become Leinster’s new Sexton? Up north there are three qualified outhalves in Ian Humphries, Niall OConnor and Paddy Wallace.
Down in Munster there also exist three excellent options in Ronan O’Gara, Paul Warwick and Jeremy Manning. In Leinster there is no obvious replacement for Sexton.
As the battle rages between Sexton and O’Gara for Ireland Leinster find themselves a little short at ten. Neither Shaun Berne nor Isa Nacewa are outhalves and with Scarlet’s Stephen Jones lining out at ten tomorrow its a little worrying how the European Champions could have left themselves so exposed. Did we take Contepomi for granted, thinking he could be replaced with talented utility backs?
Of course it’s very difficult to establish his ability based on last week’s performance in Wales but Ian McKinley represents the closest version of Sexton that is available to the management. At 5ft 11in and 14 stone, he is in the Sexton category and he can kick from hand.
Although only 20 last week, he is certainly worth looking at, but not yet at Heineken Cup level. Further conundrums exist for Leinster regardless of whom ever starts at 10 and all the indicators are pointing towards Berne. Who will kick the goals? History will remind Leinster all too well how errant kicks can stunt advancement.
Again with Jones at 10, Scarlets will undoubtedly move into double figures through his boot. Do Leinster have enough tries in them, away from home to outscore Jones? Leinster have always stacked tries and bonus points in the pool stages but with a stand-in outhalf tomorrow may be different.
Scarlets are fully aware of their opportunity and will tailor their game plan accordingly. Much has been made of Scarlets’ off-the-deck game controlled by their half backs, so too Leinster’s defence.
This represents Leinster’s way. Field position must be secured through Rob Kearney, Eoin Reddan and Brian O’Driscoll’s kicking followed by strangulation of the home team keen to put the ball through the hands. Offer them enough rope, if you will.
Meanwhile, Contepomi is plying his trade in Toulon, who have the luxury of another dove-tailing ten, Jonny Wilkinson. That said, Toulon are currently lying half way down the Top 14 Table and Leinster are in control.
With outhalves very much at the fore this weekend, South African Gavin Hume, Perpignan’s starting ten is worthy of comment. At 16st 5 lbs, he represents a potential handful for O’Gara. The situation for Rog is not helped by the two men outside Hume being the very talented centres Maxime Mermoz and David Marty. This 10, 12, 13 Perpignan combination must have propelled Tony McGahan into putting Lifeimi Mafi and Keith Earls together in midfield.
Defensively, Mafi is teak-tough but he does break the line and there’s no doubt he will be keeping one eye on O’Gara’s channel. Perpignan have an opportunity in exposing Mafi’s hunger for the hit to drag him out of his channel and expose the space behind.
Earls will have to be very sharp adapting to Mafi. The flip side, McGahan is putting his creative players closer to the ball. Earls will now get on the ball quicker.
For Denis Hurley its a big achievement to keep the former international winger Jean de Villiers on the bench.
Both Munster and Leinsters place kicking may catch them. Statistically, both are struggling and neither can afford to lose the edge that O’Gara and Sexton has given their teams. For so long both sets of forwards have received almost immediate reward from pressure through key three pointers. Conversely missed opportunities can prove devastating to a pack.
From the outset the draw has been more favourable to Leinster than Munster. Given the choice, most would select the Scarlets over Perpignan for the middle games.
Fortune has favoured Munster a little also as in their current form travelling to France this weekend would have been catastrophic. It is very comforting to hear Paul O’Connell concerned about Munsters form, particularly coming into a European Cup game. Thats always an indicator on what they will be focusing on.
Put simply, when they forget about the opposition, look around the dressingroom they can create so much energy that the flaws witnessed on recent away matches are parked.
In Wales last week the Ospreys played for 15 minutes after the break and won. Both sides were down players, both played poorly but the 15-minute desire got the Ospreys across the line. Regardless of Perpignan’s injuries Munster will need a full on 80 minutes. In the past the middle fixtures was where Leinster may have faltered and not because they were underperforming but because they took their eye off the ball. That culture thankfully is consigned to the past.
Both Munster and Leinster remain strong bookies favourites to win this weekend, a tall ask but I feel the European pedigree will come to the fore. I just hope place kicks don’t spoil either party.
PS. For those wondering what to expect in Parc y Scarlets this weekend check The Hot Tub competition winners and highlights from Scarlets v Edinburgh on December 4th on the Scarlets’ website.
