Tomorrow's £750,000 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe provides yet another potentially dramatic culmination to a season with a quality international field vying to win what for many is the championship race of Europe. The records show that the home team usually have the secret for getting their best right for the Arc by more or less abandoning the middle part of the season and keeping their powder dry, a tactic that worked spectacularly for Helissio last year and which Andre Fabre hopes will do so also for his French Derby hero Peintre Celebre. Such is this duo's talent that they would normally dominate any Arc consideration on their own but not this time. This time, the Arc looks as complicated as it has ever been.

Despite the presence of the Irish duo, Oscar Schindler and Ebadiyla, the Australian champion Nothin' Leica Dane, the American Yokohama and the German challenger Borgia, Helissio, Peintre Celebre and Pilsudski have dominated the antepost market for this race and as per usual, the bookmakers look to have got it right. With the possible exception of Helissio however.

It goes against the grain to dismiss a colt who looked a superb champion in winning this race in a virtual canter 12 months ago but the reality is that he was left alone to set his own pace that day and when he has been taken on for the lead in subsequent races, he has not looked nearly as comfortable and he looks one to avoid this time.

Which should logically leave us with two but logic in racing is nearly always too easy. Allowing for the fact that Cash Asmussen will know Oscar Schindler much better this time, the dual Irish Leger winner could surprise a lot of people tomorrow and looks a decent each way bet at 16 to 1 to at least equal his third placing of last year. Ebadiyla may find the ground too firm but should still go well while Nothin' Leica Dane could be overpriced at 50 to 1.

Nevertheless, I believe the winner will come from either Peintre Celebre or Pilsudski.

A flood of recent cash has forced Peintre Celebre down to favourite and the draw position of two, in a race where a low draw is regarded as ideal, looks good. The colt, bidding to give owner Daniel Wildenstein his fourth Arc, has done nothing wrong, especially when winning the Prix du Jockey Club with a devastating late kick. Olivier Peslier did plenty wrong when getting beaten on him at 10 to one on in his Arc warm-up but is unlikely to make the same mistake again. Peslier's presence, combined with fast ground, a good draw and Helissio to track, will make Peintre Celebre a formidable opponent. Yet, preference is just for the English horse Pilsudski and Michael Kinane who won the Arc in 1989 with Carroll House.

He too, was a late maturing horse but while Pilsudski may be of a similar type, he definitely looks different class. Second in this last year and winner of the Breeders Cup, Pilsudski looked a real pearl of a racehorse when demolishing his field in the Irish Champion Stakes and with the Eclipse also under his belt this season he looks, in a year when the older horses generally look superior to the three-year-olds, better than ever.

Against that is tomorrow's poor draw of 15 but apart from the two main French hopes, every other challenger of substance is drawn wide with him. While Peintre Celebre may have marginally shorter to travel in the race, there is also a correspondingly greater danger of having weakening dross stopping his progress at a critical stage. Kinane, in contrast, should be able to enjoy a trouble-free passage.

The positives and negatives for both horses look to balance each other so, in the hope of a battle royale, the already battle-hardened Pilsudski is selected as the best option. The Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye could also go to Britain but not to the best fancied of their runners, Royal Applause. He looks best over six furlongs and may be just caught for early pace over this five. In contrast, early pace is exactly what Evening performance has and on this ground, she may be able to just last home in front.

Peslier will also have hopes of winning the Prix Marcel Boussac with the unbeaten Anna Palariva, while today John Oxx's Galway winner, Aliya, should find the 1m 7f of the Prix de Lutece ideal for her.