Grand National Preview: The usual maximum field of 40 runners will line up for today's John Smith's Grand National but with the lottery element no longer such a factor in the world's most famous steeplechase it's hard to deny that Point Barrow ticks almost all the right boxes as a likely winner.
A total of 11 Irish-trained horses will attempt to continue Ireland's dominance of the Aintree spectacular which has seen five of the last eight winners trained here.
Since there have been just 21 Irish winners in the entire 168-year history of the great race, it's an unprecedented hot-streak that the bookmakers at least believe has every chance of continuing with odds of only 8 to 1 being offered about an Irish 1-2-3.
The top four places in the ante-post betting have been dominated for a long time by visiting contenders and only the persistent support for Joes Edge in the last couple of days has changed that.
Both Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter, the last two National victors, are back for another crack, while Dun Doire will have his supporters too despite the quick ground conditions appearing to be all against him.
No horse since Red Rum (1973-74) has won back-to-back Nationals, while the last one to regain the title was the same little horse whose Aintree career was unparalleled, so the task facing both Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde today is immense.
More relevant to the argument against them though is the weight issue. Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb in 2005 but he is the only horse in the last 18 years to successfully lug more than 11st or greater around four-and-a-half miles and the 30 most famous fences in racing.
In fact, there are some shrewdies who reckon that the real one of the Willie Mullins quartet to be on could be the former hunter Bothar Na who won the Kerry National at Listowel last September and will have only 10st 6lb on his back on ground he will love.
But when it comes to recent good form, a decent weight and being happy on the going, there is no doubt but that Point Barrow logically appears to have the best credentials for this National party.
Sentimentalists will argue that logic is irrelevant to the National but that is to ignore the recent pattern which has seen fancied horses mostly come up in the last dozen years apart from the 33 to 1 Red Marauder, in 2001, which required almost untraceable ground conditions and a pile-up to happen.
Like Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde, Point Barrow comes here as a former Irish National winner, where he put up a career-best performance on genuinely good ground. An encouraging warm-up run over hurdles at Navan last month also follows the recent winning profile and he nestles perfectly in the handicap at 10st 12lb.
Negatives, such as they are, revolve around both Philip Carberry and Pat Hughes being National virgins. But no jockey is hotter or more confident than Carberry and Hughes's career is almost a byword for shrewdness. Apart from that, any sceptics might have to reach for Point Barrow's number 13 saddle cloth as a reason not to back him!
Those looking for a big-priced each way shot in the world's most famous race could do worse than examine the horse who has travelled the world to get here, Zabenz.
The Gold Cup fourth, Monkerhostin, is the Philip Hobbs first string but his stable companion, Zabenz, is a dour stayer who will have no trouble with the ground and wasn't that far off the top novices of last year. He has been with Hobbs since 2004 but Zabenz's colourful career before that included racing in his native New Zealand, winning the 2002 VRC Grand National at Flemington in Melbourne which is, in fact, a hurdle race, and then travelling to the USA where he won a Grade One chase at Saratoga as well as having a run on the flat.
There will be quicker horses in the race - he has won only one of his 16 British starts - but Zabenz is tough, jumps well and has always been thought of as a National type by his shrewd trainer.
Asian Maze and Al Eile, both previous winners, come back for the main supporting race at Liverpool today, the Aintree Hurdle, where the Champion Hurdle third, Afsoun, will attempt to boost the form of Sublimity's festival triumph.
The main disappointment of that Champion Hurdle was Detroit City who started favourite but never showed with a winning chance and now has the blinkers off and a tongue tie on. Worryingly, nothing obvious came to light to explain that lack-lustre effort at Cheltenham but it could well be worth betting that a return to form will see him beat these. The track will be no worry for Detroit City who won here last year and the extra half mile looks it should be to his advantage.
Jubilant Note looks an interesting Irish runner in the opener considering he easily won the Lartigue at Listowel last September. The ground and the flat track will suit, plus he had an encouraging run on the flat at Thurles recently.
Lennon was unlucky at Cheltenham but this track will be ideal for him in the Grade One novices chase.
Selections
Brian O'Connor
1.45Jubilant Note
2.15Lennon
3.25Oscatello
4.15Grand National
1 Point Barrow
2 Zabenz
3 Bothar Na
4 Mckelvey
5.00Kings Brook
5.35Three Guesses
