RUGBY ANALYIST:Splitting the Leinster centre partnership looks risky but Ireland still have enough quality to prevail

FREDRICK FORSYTH'S 1971 thriller The Day of the Jackalcentres on one man, a professional assassin who plots the downfall of Gen Charles De Gaulle. The Jackal, with a sniper rifle, waits for his opportunity to pounce.

Unfortunately, the modern-day jackal works at very close quarters. Thankfully the true “jackal”, Richie McCaw, won’t be in Croke Park this weekend, but a close second, Australian George Smith, is sitting on the bench with David Pocock starting. Not to mention Springbok number six Heinrich Brüssow in three weeks.

Those who watch the Magners League will have noticed teams are now targeting the first defender into the breakdown. The law allows the first man, once on his feet, to target the ball. As the ruck evolves he can maintain possession. This is a major development. This first man in is known as the “jackal” and must be stopped at all costs. Once on the ball it is almost impossible to shift him. Formerly he would have been penalised as the breakdown became a ruck. But that law has changed.

South African referee Jonathan Kaplan will have a major influence over the breakdown, so keep a close eye on the point of entry for the support runner. If he is a second late he will no longer target the ball but the “jackal”.

Last weekend against England, Australia conceded a very telling penalty on the seventh minute. Number eight Wycliff Palu carried the ball from Quade Cooper into contact and was tackled by Lewis Moody in open play. Almost immediately Wallaby openside Smith was about to bridge over the ball. In the traffic, English number eight Jordan Crane hunted for the ball and, as expected, the other Wallabies hunted for the English jackal. This time it was tighthead Ben Alexander who diagonally hit Crane. Penalty! The cameras picked up Smith but it was Alexander who in a panic entered illegally and conceded.

Because of this revised law I’m still trying to figure out the tactical reasoning for splitting up the Leinster centre partnership. Facing Digby Ioane and Quade Cooper on Sunday affords Ireland a huge opportunity. They are extremely talented but are very, very light and inexperienced. English left wing Matt Banahan bowled them over a few times. In Thomond Park some weeks back Paddy Wallace had a very good match in both attack and defence and certainly deserves a shot. But can he force an advantage at the breakdown where both Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll are phenomenal jackals?

Ireland’s 10 and 12 axis mimics the Wallabies to a degree, where Cooper at 12 is first receiver as often as Matt Giteau. The ambidextrous antipodeans are excellent left- and right-foot kickers and distributors. This will cause confusion in our defence.

So to justify Wallace’s inclusion he must be used as both a kicker and passer to vary the point of attack.

That said, the Australian duo are much better ball-carriers. So unless they can provide a threat it is a pointless combination.

So when in possession I hope to see Tommy Bowe come off his wing to both fix and test the Wallabies defence close-in. This can’t just happen once a half, but every five minutes. He is key to creating space for Rob Kearney and Luke Fitzgerald out wide. As a part-time centre he understands the value of running hard lines that benefit those out wide.

Ireland have infinitely more to offer than try-less England did last week, so to hear Wallaby coach Robbie Deans’ take on the Irish threat is interesting. He is expecting a traditional, big opening 20 minutes and not much more than the England performance.

He obviously didn’t pay too much attention to last year’s Grand Slam when Ireland finished every game stronger than they started.

So the performance, as always, must come from the pack. Like they did against Ulster in October, Paul O’Connell and Donncha O’Callaghan must crank it up. Crucially, they must get into the air in lineout defence at every opportunity, target space and not follow the man. England, by getting into the air, reaped huge rewards.

Australia’s broken-field running impressed last week, especially in tight quarters. Ireland’s kicking must prevent Australian counterattacking. Time and again they made great yardage on the tight side on the counter, which proved the difference.

But what have Australia achieved by beating England? After all, England were poor in many aspects and the Wallabies dominated possession but lacked precision, especially in the final third. If the Australians can mange improvements here it will be tight. But to counter that, there is a very inexperienced leader with legend Rocky Elsom captaining for the only third time.

Australia have spades of pitch time over Ireland but Ireland have the trump of real leadership and a winning culture.

Outside the performance and an Irish win, I’m most interested in Declan Kidney’s bench policy. Neither John Hayes nor Jerry Flannery will make the full 80 minutes. With such little rugby under their belts I expect to see debutant Seán Cronin and Tom Court enter at some stage. That leaves a frontrow with a grand total of seven caps!

There is great onus on Ronan O’Gara for a performance. He has more than earned the right to start, but I’d like to see Johnny Sexton get at least 20 minutes. So maybe there’ll be a double substitution at half-back in the final quarter to keep the Leinster pair together.

As the debate continues over the quality of the English Premiership, it’s interesting to note that three seasons ago Paul Doran Jones was plying his trade in Lansdowne FC with no Leinster contract. Tomorrow he will be on England’s bench. The extremely talented Cian Healy has made the jump in a very short time, but the rise of Doran Jones, without starting a Premiership match, is mesmeric. I wish him the best.

Finally, what a weekend of sport awaits. But I can’t help but giggle at the GAA and the Croke Park profit from two hours and 50 minutes of work spread out over 20 hours. Two Irish wins would be nice.

liamtoland@yahoo.com