The fact that Ireland are currently listed as number one in the World Rugby rankings means nothing. That is fool’s gold. The game’s true number one is the team that holds the William Webb Ellis trophy.
Today at the Aviva when Ireland take on the Springboks, the current world champions, many truths will unfold so in no way, shape or form is this a November “friendly”.
Since last season’s tactical revolution, when coach Andy Farrell introduced radical changes to Ireland’s attacking and selection policies, Ireland have defeated New Zealand in three out of four matches, while England, Wales, Scotland, Italy, Japan and the Pumas have all fallen to Ireland’s high-tempo attacking game.
However, the Springboks pose a vastly different challenge than these teams.
The South Africans will implement a tried and tested game plan that is a masterpiece of simple, yet tactically brilliant, thinking. Sadly, for such a hugely talented group of players, this Springboks strategy, which has delivered such astonishing success, has negativity at its heart.
The Springboks’ game plan is multigenerational in its formation. From their return to the international stage in 1992, across three World Cup victories, the South African teams have selected a physically commanding pack of forwards, who produce supremely dominant scrums and mauls. They also select outhalves with extraordinary kicking abilities.
They may have the hands of Venus de Milo, but they must be brilliant kickers. The great Springboks outhalves of the past such as Naas Bother, Joel Stransky, Jannie de Beer, Francois Steyn and Hendre Pollard have all been valued for their kicking abilities, not for their creativity in attack.
The Springboks’ game plan has a strict formula. Its foundation is that the Springboks scrum for penalties not to produce possession for their talented backline. After winning a scrum penalty they either take the points or kick for touch. The Boks will maul almost every lineout along the entire length of the field.
They will maul for tries and for penalties, so they can maul some more.
In the midfield with the ball in hand, if there are no line breaks after two or three direct carries by the forwards, the outhalf punts high across the field, behind the defensive line, where their athletic and lightning-fast wingers contest the catch.
The Springboks select six forwards on their bench. Substitutions start often start before half-time, so most forwards only play half a match. The fresh legs in the forwards ensure that the physical onslaught at the scrum, breakdown and mauls can be maintained for the entire game. As a by-product, time wasting is an essential part of their game plan, so that the giant green forwards can suck in enough oxygen between scrums and mauls.
All underpinned by a closely compressed defensive line, that sprints forward, led by the outside centre, to create a bowl of Springboks tacklers, from which it seems impossible for the attack to penetrate.
Astonishingly, this horror show is interspersed with rare but brilliant flashes of the most sublime skills that can create sparkling attacking raids and stunning tries. The Boks’ skills at the breakdown are also exceptional. Malcolm Marx in particular is one of world’s best “jackalers”.
Any team on the planet with a backline that consisted of Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Jesse Kriel, Cheslin Kolbe with Faf de Klerk on the bench and the developing skills of Damian Willemse at outhalf, should demand an attacking philosophy from any coach who was charged with their stewardship.
The Springboks have a cluster of outstanding individual players that should dazzle and joyously entertain us all; sadly, that is rarely the case. The Boks often win, but when they do they usually win ugly.
Today’s selection of Willemse at number 10 brings us hope for a change of direction. Possessing brilliant footwork and blistering acceleration, Willemse has no fear of taking the ball deep into the defensive line, trusting his skill to pass under pressure.
However, the South Africa game plan does have some holes.
Since June, the Springboks have lost Tests to Wales, Australia and New Zealand. Crucially for Ireland, in all of these matches, the Springboks were not in the lead at half-time. In the Test matches, the Boks won, the exact opposite was the case and they were in front at the break.
Once in the lead, the Boks place their collective foot on the throat of the game and strangle the life of the contest.
Recently, Ireland have started at a blistering pace and have scored early. Today that must be repeated for any Irish hopes because once in the lead the world champions rarely lose. Yet when they are behind and under pressure, the story has been completely different.
In the second Test between New Zealand and the Springboks at Ellis Park in this year’s Rugby Championship, the New Zealanders attacked South Africa in a manner that disrupted their rushing and compacted defence.
The Kiwis played a high-paced, fast-moving attack that kept the scoreboard ticking over and forced pressure back onto the South Africans. The Kiwis set the agenda and the Boks were forced to follow.
In Adelaide, the Wallabies defeated the Springboks by matching the intensity of their set pieces and then implemented their high-tempo, multiple-pass attack, that once again disrupted the Springboks’ defensive line.
The good news for Ireland is that high-tempo, accurate attack, with multiple passes, especially from forwards, is exactly what Ireland have excelled at for the last 12 months.
Today is a clash of two philosophies that are poles apart. Ireland are still developing their positive, entertaining, ball-in-hand game, while the Springboks, a team that oozes with talent, are shackled to a plan that is infatuated with scrums, mauls, and kicks, attempting to physically smother their opponents.
This is a high pressure, high stakes match between two true contenders for the 2023 World Cup. Both are fighting for that huge shot of momentum that victory will bring.
If the rain holds off and the stadium can find its voice to help Johnny Sexton ignite Ireland’s attacking strategies behind a set piece that holds solid, then Ireland can overcome the current world champions.
