Rugby World Cup: Gerry Thornley predicts Ireland’s team to play New Zealand

James Ryan looks likely to be ruled out of Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand at the Stade de France on Saturday night (kick-off 9pm local time/8pm Irish), thus potentially leaving Andy Farrell with a choice between Joe McCarthy and Ryan Baird on the bench as back-up lock.

If Ryan, who has reportedly flown home to Dublin for a scan on his injured hand/wrist, is ruled out, the indications lean toward McCarthy being included in the match-day squad. Although Baird had a fine game when starting in the secondrow in the Grand Slam coronation against England, his two starts in the warm-ups against Italy and Samoa, along with his two appearances off the bench in this World Cup against Tonga and South Africa, have all been in the backrow.

By contrast, McCarthy’s three appearances - against Italy, as a replacement against England, before starting again against Romania - have all been in the secondrow.

It was notable too that when lauding Iain Henderson’s impressive performances off the bench in picking him to start against Scotland, Farrell added “big, young Joe McCarthy is part of the equation as well. The competition for places in the second row is exactly where it should be and they all know that.”

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Although team manager Mick Kearney expressed the belief that they were more hopeful than in the original aftermath of Ryan suffering an injury in the 36-14 win over Scotland, the lock did not attend the squad’s session yesterday at Stade des Fauvettes in the northern outskirts of Paris.

Of the others nursing knocks before, or as a consequence of, the Scottish game, Mack Hansen appears to be the biggest concern. He sat out Tuesday’s session, but is doing some training within his own recovery programme following the bang to the calf he suffered after completing his HIA and returning to the pitch in the 34th minute last Saturday.

That his calf problem is a contact injury rather than a sprain probably increases Hansen’s chances of recovery in time for Saturday’s quarter-final, and there are cautiously optimistic noises emanating from the camp about the Connacht winger.

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By contrast, the prognosis for Robbie Henshaw and Keith Earls did not look especially promising immediately before or after the Scottish game, when both had been ruled out of contention with hamstring twinges. But both apparently trained fully on Tuesday.

This suggests Earls would be the likelier stand-in at right-wing rather than Jimmy O’Brien were Hansen ruled out given the former’s greater involvements in both the warm-ups and at this World Cup.

This also indicates that Henshaw might be a viable consideration for the number 23 jersey and impact role which he had against Tonga and South Africa, having previously been forced to withdraw from the opener against Romania and subsequently being ruled out of last Saturday’s pool finale.

That said, Stuart McCloskey performed exceptionally well on a belated if deserved World Cup debut against Scotland, ten days after he attended the birth of his son in Belfast.

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Ireland had no media day on Tuesday and will not have one on Thursday either. That is because Thursdays have been travel days heretofore for the Irish squad and therefore not training days, with Farrell and a selection of players accommodating World Rugby’s requests for team announcements to be two days before kick-off on arrival in the various match cities.

However, as the squad are now based entirely in Paris, this Thursday’s non-travel, down day was deemed to be sacrosanct. Also mindful that they have had a seven-day turnaround before this quarter-final compared to New Zealand’s ten-day turnaround since their rout of Uruguay, the management were not of a mind to have Johnny Sexton plus four or more players burdened with media duties on their day off.

Instead, they are willing to unveil their hand three days before kick-off and 24 hours ahead of the All Blacks, which admittedly does not tally with their usual desire to keep their selection under wraps until formally announced.

Ian Foster will announce his side at tea-time on Thursday. Tighthead Tyrel Lomax appears to be the All Blacks’ biggest doubt, and if he doesn’t start, Nepo Laulala most likely will, but otherwise the team would seem to pick itself.

Ethan de Groot is set to return from suspension at loosehead, with Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett in the second-row, Ardie Savea returning between Shannon Frizell and Same Cane in the backrow, and Reiko Ioane reinstated at outside centre instead of Anton Lienert-Brown. Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett should also be recalled.

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Ireland v New Zealand (possible): Keenan; Hansen/Earls, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton (capt), Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong; Beirne, Henderson; O’Mahony, van der Flier, Doris.

Replacements: Kelleher, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy/Baird, Conan, Murray, Crowley, Henshaw/McCloskey.

New Zealand (possible): B Barrett; Jordan, Ioane, J Barrett, Telea; Mo’unga, Smith; de Groot, Taylor, Lomax; Retallick, S Barrett; Frizell, Cane (capt), Savea.

Replacements: Coles, Tu’ungafasi, Laulala, Whitelock, Papali’i, Roigard, McKenzie, Lienert-Brown.