A din of negativity has been getting gradually louder since Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final exit to New Zealand last year, and neither a Six Nations championship title nor a drawn summer series against the world champions in South Africa has turned down the volume of discontent.
I find Irish rugby in an unusual place, and it feels like we have been here before. George Santayana said: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Some supporters and critics don’t appear to have learned a whole lot from the previous highs and lows in our rugby history.
Andy Farrell’s tetchiness in the post-match press conference following the New Zealand game was understandable based on a line of questioning that felt a little dramatic or overly pessimistic. Professional sport has slowly and then quickly become a ruthless place to exist; eaten bread is soon forgotten.
The Ireland head coach, perhaps surprised by the negativity in some of the questions, reasserted that his team did not become a bad one overnight. We have been here before when an Irish team excels: the expectation grows, often unchecked by pragmatism.
Joe Schmidt presided over an Ireland team that enjoyed unprecedented success, one that won regularly. But despite that, over time the style of those performances was questioned. It created a negative atmosphere around the team even though they had the results to show for it, and managed to create an unattainably high level of expectancy, one that was impossible to maintain.
[ High price of penalties left Ireland in the red against All BlacksOpens in new window ]
There were obvious mitigating circumstances to the eventual decline in fortunes for that group. Ireland opted to double down on possession-based rugby when teams had figured out how to negate this approach. There is a fine line for critics between an honest assessment of individuals and team and a race to be first to point to an impending tipping point in fortune.
I wonder how close we are to replicating that negative pall around this team, which feels an incredible thing to say after all that has been achieved in this calendar year alone. The group of players, and Irish rugby in general at the moment, has earned the right to stand proudly among their peers, knowing that they have beaten everyone in that strata.
Last week I wrote about the restrictions in player development that continue to exist within the Irish system; that alone places a huge strain on Ireland’s ability to compete in the highest echelons of the Test arena. Rival nations have more players and a greater depth of quality.
The loss to New Zealand last week was a tough pill to swallow. I think we all wanted it so badly that the heart firmly took over from the head. It should serve as a timely reminder of system limitations and that to beat the New Zealands and South Africas of this world we need to be at our absolute best.
There are natural cycles, on and off the field, to the growth, peak and decline of successful teams. On the pitch a style of a play that is successful will be replicated by other teams, opposition defences will respond quickly to try to nullify the advantage. It then comes down to players on the field.
At the moment the top-ranked teams are at different stages on the development and playing arc. Argentina and New Zealand are clearly on an upward trajectory, as are our opponents next week, Australia.
South Africa, France and perhaps Ireland are at the zenith of their cycle and are doing their best to maintain that position as well as evolve in terms of planning for, and investing in, the future. That evolution is dependent on roster depth, how smoothly the coaches can get players to switch to a new way of thinking about the game and how quickly the bedding-in process takes.
There is always safety in the old way of playing and even a temptation that if the execution can be improved, the outcome will remain positive in terms of results. In my experience, once defences have figured out an opposition attack, there is no going back; the players, the plan, or sometimes both, need to change.
I think this is where Ireland is at the moment. For the second game in succession the All Blacks found a way to disrupt Ireland across a number of areas to stymie Ireland’s attack. The upshot was a victory to go with that in last year’s World Cup knock-out game. Ireland won’t be able to repopulate in a rugby sense in the same fashion as South Africa, New Zealand or France, so they will need to try to reshape the way they are approaching games.
The Argentina match was quite literally a game of two halves: the attacking intent was there initially with a slightly different shape, but things fell apart in the second half, which to me shows a team in the midst of change.
There was a new set-up in attack, with Jack Crowley sitting as the second distributor behind James Lowe and Mack Hansen as primary receivers, with others such as Tadhg Beirne occupying the wider channels.
The ambition was there but not always the accuracy; that said, they looked threatening, a team that was just about to click in that opening 40 minutes. If Beirne had managed to ground the ball for a try, the whole complexion of the match would have changed.
[ Ireland v Argentina: Five things we learned from a narrow Irish victoryOpens in new window ]
It can be a tough juggling act to reshape an attack, get it to bed in, the players to buy in and execute accurately, while trying to keep results ticking over. Any glitch and problems ensue. England are playing some incredible rugby in patches but losing matches. That erodes belief, coaches are forced to defend their tactics and tenure and, repeated over an extended period of time, the words start to ring hollow.
Fiji will offer something a little different at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday afternoon, even without a key player such as Semi Radradra. The attacking style and flair can be intimidating to play against but it’s a good gauge to assess young players.
Farrell will make changes, trying to balance the extra game in the window a week later against a resurgent Schmidt-led Wallabies.
Ireland need to win to maintain momentum and the Irish head coach will look for a positive result to gee up the whole squad going into Australia week. Farrell is fiercely loyal, but this is a rare opportunity to integrate a handful into the team from outside the frontline group of players.
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