Autumn Nations Series: Ireland v Fiji, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 3.10 – Live on Virgin Media One and TNT Sports 1
It’s been an entertaining and interesting Autumn Nations Series window thus far, helped in large part by weather that has been, well, quite benignly autumnal. But with wintry conditions set to land overnight in the shape of Storm Bert, the weather is likely to make for the most trying of weekends this month.
Although some of the heaviest overnight rain is forecast to abate, relatively speaking, by the afternoon, it appears likely that there will still be plenty of it about. along with gusty winds. A lovely day for Gus McCarthy and Cormac Izuchukwu to make their debuts, then, not least with the former’s darts in mind.
Ireland’s game plan was always likely to take a leaf out of Scotland’s manual against a comparatively understrength Fiji a fortnight ago, with a premium on retaining possession and a somewhat short passing game designed to starve them of loose or turnover possession.
The forecast is likely to tailor Ireland’s approach anyway.
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“Yeah, definitely,” admitted captain Caelan Doris after an icily cold but sunny and dry captain’s run at the Aviva Stadium on Friday. “Possession, territory become a lot more important. The breakdown, set-piece, discipline, it’s going to be even more important.
“Building a score,” Doris continued. “If you go two scores clear then the opposition has to play the game a different way and start forcing things a little bit which will be tricky in the conditions.
Are Fiji now capable of beating Ireland for the first time in their history?
“It’s still a little bit of unknown how it’s going to be. It’s supposed to be lashing overnight, whether it will be greasy or actually raining during the game I’m not sure, but it’s definitely a factor we’ll have to consider.
Being a hardy lad from Mayo, it shouldn’t be any bother to him.
“It’s a little bit of different game but it’s still very enjoyable. A bit more attritional, it’s good for forwards, I’m going to be looking forward to it.”
Yet rugby is a winter sport, and winning in the depths of the stuff is, in many ways, its essence.
“Yeah definitely,” agreed Doris. “When you’re soaking wet and muddy it’s more satisfying. That will be the goal, definitely.”
[ Ireland’s young guns get their chance to fire against FijiOpens in new window ]
The relative callowness of this team – McCarthy, Izuchukwu and Sam Prendergast have played little frontline rugby for their provinces, never mind being novices at Test level – adds to the game’s intrigue. Granted, that adds to the team’s hunger, all the more so when you add players like Cian Prendergast and Jacob Stockdale, who has never looked stronger or fitter, and there is a fair amount of experience behind them.
There is likely to be a fair amount of trench warfare, and this could suit the close-in carrying games of Joe McCarthy, Izuchukwu and Doris, who needs to stamp his presence on this contest. The return of Bundee Aki should give the younger Prendergast a get-out-of-jail card, and retaining Mack Hansen’s skills as an auxiliary playmaker makes sense.
Stockdale and Jamie Osborne give the team left-footed options, and there’s no better exponent of the chip and chase than Stockdale. Osborne’s strength in the air in Durban augurs well, and the kicking games of the halves will probably be more important in the conditions.
After his satisfactory and promising debut a week ago, it will be interesting to see Sam Prendergast’s short kicking game come into play, as it will have to do.
But most of all it will be retaining possession, with Prendergast pulling the strings through phases, which should hold the key.
And what of Fiji? They’re assuredly the best Fijian team Ireland have faced. Where before they were obliged to pick players from various leagues and divisions around Europe, now they have the Fijian Drua, a professional outfit who compete in Super Rugby, to pick from, and that is a game changer.
All told, 11 of this match day squad are with the Drua, and they are well used to playing in sodden conditions in New Zealand. But they are also sprinkled with the stardust of seven Top 14 players and four from the Premiership as well as the Waratahs fullback Vuate Karawalevu. Their wonderfully athletic 34-year-old warrior captain Waisea Nayacalevu has pitched up in Sale after 12 years in the Top 14 and never has a bad game for Fiji.
He is reunited with Josua Tuisova, Frank Lomani is back at halfback with Caleb Muntz, a huge and cruel loss for the World Cup on the eve of the tournament; the frontrow is the starting unit from the World Cup and the bench packs a Top 14-infused punch. And they’ll be every bit as physical as the All Blacks and Argentina, if not more so.
Lomani wasn’t shy in speaking about Ireland’s apparent vulnerability, earlier this week. “We spoke about it the last two days that Ireland was the number one team a few months ago. At the moment they are so vulnerable that we as a team, and as a group, we can counter that.
“The team is not really like a few months ago when [Johnny] Sexton was playing. They were a very good team, solid. But attack-wise and defensively as a team, if we work together, we can break them.”
[ Are Fiji now capable of beating Ireland for the first time in their history?Opens in new window ]
Andy Farrell has welcomed Lomani’s language, and why wouldn’t he? It informs the Irish players that the Flying Fijians quite fancy their chances of a historic first win over Ireland, to augment victories against all the other Six Nations sides.
No less than Argentina, this is the win they want most and, accordingly, head coach Mick Byrne has reverted to the bulk of the side that beat Wales a fortnight ago after making 11 changes in their distracted 33-19 win over Spain in Valladolid last Saturday. That is no yardstick – more so the World Cup pool win over Australia and nearly beating England in the quarter-finals, and this is the core of that side.
Maybe Ireland will build up scoreboard pressure, as Doris outlined, and with some wind in their sails will pull clear. But they’ve had a couple of close shaves against the Flying Fijians and this could be another one.
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Gus McCarthy (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Cormac Izuchukwu (Ulster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, Capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Conor Murray (Munster), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster).
FIJI: Vuate Karawalevu (Waratahs); Jiuta Wainiqolo (Toulon), Waisea Nayacalevu (Sale, capt), Josua Tuisova (Racing 92), Ponepati Loganimasi (Fijian Drua); Caleb Muntz (Fijian Drua), Frank Lomani (Fijian Drua); Eroni Mawi (Saracens), Tevita Ikanivere (Fijian Drua), Luke Tagi (Bayonne); Mesake Vocevoce (Fijian Drua), Temo Mayanavanua (Northampton); Meli Derenalagi (Fijian Drua), Kitione Salawa (Fijian Drua), Elia Canakaivata (Fijian Drua).
Replacements: Sam Matavesi (Lyon), Haereiti Hetet (Fijian Drua), Samu Tawake (Fijian Drua), Setareki Turagacoke (Stade Francais), Albert Tuisue (Gloucester), Peni Matawalu (Fijian Drua), Vilimoni Botitu (Castres Olympique), Sireli Maqala (Bayonne).
Referee: Hollie Davidson (SRU)
Overall head-to-head: Played 7, Ireland 7 wins.
Betting: 1-20 Ireland, 45-1 Draw, 10-1 Fiji. Handicap odds (Fiji 19 pts): Evs Ireland, 16-1 Draw, Evs Fiji.
Forecast: Ireland to win, but by less than the handicap.
