The provinces – with an unbelievable injury list – are at the base of Becher’s Brook. The Grand National dictates that fence is crossed twice but with 16 other fences intervening.

Imagine putting that fence into a double like Ulster, Leinster and Munster face this fortnight; Toulon away and then immediately at home. The overall pool draw is one thing but who you play against in round three and especially where, defines your season.

Leicester in Thomond Park are readable and beatable. They will elect for a split kick off and they are unlikely to counterattack. Fielding box kicks on the tram tracks they won't shift infield opting for the rewind before contact to head back down the tram tracks. If the ball is caught down the middle then Leicester will most likely carry two- handed back into traffic without really testing. So it'll be worth kicking away possession.

Leicester will put Dan Cole at the tail of defensive short lineouts while, supporting him, hooker Tom Youngs will slot in at scrumhalf with scrumhalf Ben Youngs at the front. That's where he stays for most full lineout defences. To force the margins Munster need to expose Cole's defensive feet at the tail with a leading charge of 11, 10, 12 and 'loosey' taking off Conor Murray.

Defensive ruck

Now combine that Munster move with Leicester’s defence at the breakdown where they often commit just the tackler, electing to fill the defensive field. So keep an eye on scrumhalf Ben Youngs and watch his defensive positioning. Quite regularly he slips away from the neutral zone behind the defensive ruck. Who then is at home and can Munster sneak through?

This is especially so off the Leicester defensive lineout. Remember they tend to put Ben Youngs in the tram tracks to get hooker Tom Youngs at the tail. The problem is Ben Youngs tends to stay on the tram tracks as per Leicester pods and zones. So a quick gainline from Munster followed by an immediate attack into the heart of the ruck could expose them defensively. Margins!

Conversely Leicester do get their blindside wingers off attacking lineouts especially Fijian winger Vereniki Goneva who was very flat off Ben Youngs against Stade Francais. It was easily handled because Leicester outhalf Owen Williams failed to sell the options. As Youngs came around the corner Goneva arrived but Williams had long since ceased being a target having slid outfield.

Many variants

Off an attacking scrum on their left hand side, Leicester will slip Goneva in behind their ten and also double bank 13 behind their 12 in a narrow quartet. Their 15 will be where 13 normally stands leaving their right winger as usual.

Play the scrum forward and Leicester have many variants of back play but ideally they want to fix Munster’s midfield with the entire intention of getting Goneva in early or push him stealthily, sliding in the backfield to pop up out on the far wing. Then Leicester resort to their systems of play.

Leicester patterns are intent on an early gainline, continued the same way with loose forward carrying. Then Williams can look to rewind hoping for a lazy blindside defensive work. Connacht scored a wonderful try through Tiernan O’Halloran when he simply ran from the openside (slipped a tad) and carried on into the blind side where he should have been smashed but the blindside defence was momentarily switched off. Leicester will look to exploit this so Munster need to continue working on both sides.

Up front watch out for their defensive set-up on a full lineout setting up as normal but with a bigger gap; why as it’s not their throw-in! As Munster catch and hit the ground Leicester will not engage ‘a maul’ sending their number eight around to tackle the Munster tail gunner. Munster need to remain vigilant to the wider gap which is the tell-tale.

I wonder can the Munster front row and a second row without Paul O’Connell’s power behind the tighthead expose Leicester’s scrum, especially as Leicester elect, at times, for an eight-man drive on their own ball. Referee, watch Ben Youngs’ sideways entry! However Youngs, appearing to tire of Leicester’s slow pedantic systems, will look to speed up the process especially off a deep penalty – or worse he is just as liable to tap 20 metres out as he did for Leicester’s bonus point try.

Offensively they are no George Ford-led Bath but they do send a dummy wall with massive pull backs to their deep midfield. Hence a Munster defensive system that ebbs and flows but spots the Leicester intention of the dummy wall with a deep midfield target can be hit, and hit hard; man and ball. The Thomond crowd would enjoy that?

Fine team

Leicester are a fine team made up of fine players like Mike Williams, their 6ft5in secondrow often employed in the backrow akin to Donnacha Ryan. But they certainly are not the team of old.

For all Munster's problems they have a cracking chance to put pressure on Leicester's passing game. Munster have struggled with decision making and execution. Leicester are very similar where classic Munster pressure at the breakdown and especially in an offensive defence will have Leicester creaking. In the end as Leicester number eight Jordan Crane said this week; "we went back to what we do well, we scrum and we maul".

Prophetic words, but that he notes “the atmosphere will be electric” is even more important. Will it Thomond Park? Munster need you like never before. And they’ll get over Becher’s Brook

liamtoland@yahoo.com