Luck of the Irish? Not when it comes to semi-final clashes in Europe

Leinster scarcely have time to pause for breath, much less for reflection, but looking back on their courageous if dispiriting European Champions Cup exit against Toulon on Sunday, in normal circumstances the province ought to take a good deal of positives from the day.

Their pack, especially, went toe to toe with the fearsome collection of warhorses expensively assembled by Toulon to became the first side to stop them winning over 80 minutes in 16 European Cup matches at home and in the process came within a whisker of becoming the first side to beat them on French soil in this competition.

The collective spirit within the Leinster team and squad is clearly strong, and they worked for each other to the point of exhaustion. Bravery comes in many formats, and necessity being the mother of invention they upped their skills and tempo in the second period of extra time to play their best rugby of the match. Admittedly, it took them until then to do so and the lack of a potent attacking game remained.

Leinster kicked the ball 47 times to Toulon’s 37. It probably wasn’t the best of rugby spectacles on television, and you probably had to be there to appreciate the awfulness of the conditions, as well as the epic scale of the battle.

Fast track

It would have been interesting to see how the two sides might have taken each other on with dry conditions and a fast track.

Throw in Nigel Owens, who likes to keep penalties to a minimum and let a game flow, for Wayne Barnes, who contributes to a team's reluctance to go through the phases by being so quick to penalise players for holding on, and it might have resembled a different sport.

Either way, Leinster’s performance should re-enforce their belief that, truly, they can take on anybody in Europe anywhere on any given day, albeit in an arm wrestle.

With Johnny Sexton making his prodigal return, Isa Nacewa also coming back and Ben Te'o likely to become more of a weapon next season, that all ought to improve their back play and running game; but a huge amount hinges on Sexton.

Ultimately, there are no guarantees, least of all in a World Cup season when they will again be Ireland's bulk suppliers. Furthermore, as Munster discovered, performances in this competition no longer offer any tangible reward or greater opportunity in the future thanks to a seeding system based exclusively – if unfairly – on one season's domestic form.

Despite reaching the last four in 2013 and 2014, Munster slipped to third seeds in the draw for this year’s revised competition by dint of being beaten in the Pro12 semi-finals last season away to Glasgow. And so they ended up with Clermont and Saracens.

Unfortunately for Leinster, therefore, these are not normal circumstances, and the lack of time for reflection and recovery from the events in Marseille is largely of their own making.

They are, admittedly, unlucky that the two tournament organisers have contrived to afford them a five-day turnaround before facing Ulster in Belfast on Friday night. However, it is Leinster's own fault that they must win to maintain their forlorn hopes of reaching the league play-offs for a sixth season in a row.

Not only are Leinster eight points adrift of the Ospreys in fourth place, but they are 10 behind Ulster and Munster. Thus, even if they win their remaining three games – away to Ulster, at home to Treviso and away to Edinburgh – it remains quite possible that they will still miss out.

Lose on Friday, and presuming the Ospreys and Munster beat Cardiff and Treviso, then the top four will be done and dusted. Only the semi-final venues will remain to be won, with the Pro12 organisers deciding the final venue in advance and so denying the team which finishes first the hard-earned reward and carrot of a home final. A nonsensical decision.

Suffer In any event,

should Leinster finish fifth, they will most likely suffer when it comes to the draw for next season’s European Champions Cup by being third, or even fourth, seeds for the pool stages.

In all of this, we have become very accustomed to the imbalance of one-off European Cup semi-finals wherein home advantage comes down to the luck of the draw, but that doesn’t make it any less significant, and Irish rugby’s misfortune in this context – specifically Leinster and Munster’s ill-luck – is quite extraordinary.

All in all, there have been 13 Irish-French semi-finals in the history of the tournament, and of those the French sides have had home country advantage on 10 occasions, all against Leinster or Munster. French clubs have won seven of those 10 ‘home’ semi-finals, with Irish teams winning two of their three at home.

Fourth year in a row

This was the fourth year in a row that Leinster or Munster have been drawn away to Clermont or Toulon – Leinster winning in Clermont in 2012 and losing on Sunday, with Munster losing to Clermont and Toulon in between.

Prior to that, Leinster beat Toulouse in 2011 at the Aviva, a year after they lost in the semi-finals in Toulouse. That same weekend, Munster lost in Biarritz in San Sebastien – one of seven semi-finals Munster have had to play out of seven against French clubs away from home. Home advantage for both French sides thus contributed significantly to one of the four previous all-French finals, as it did again last weekend.

Viewed another way, were the European Champions Cup organisers to properly ape their footballing counterparts and make the semi-finals two-legged affairs, Leinster might thus be starting from scratch in the return home leg, while Saracens would only have a four-point deficit to make up at home to Clermont.

So much for the luck of the Irish when it comes to the luck of the draw. gthornley@irishtimes.com