What is motivating French No 8 Louis Picamoles? I’m not privy to his body fat numbers, but the vastly slimmer Picamoles, having lost none of his explosiveness, has been magnificent. He is a real threat come match 39.
For all the lazy commentary regarding French coach Philippe Saint-André, Picamoles is transformed. On Saturday evening we’ll see how motivated his team-mates are as France take on Italy.
In the meantime, England get the ball rolling with Stuart Lancaster’s first big decision. George Ford starts in a fixture that will suit and not quite suit his style.
Having watched Fiji beat Samoa in the Pacific Nations Cup final and again against Canada in the Stoop (47-18), they, as stereotyped, are a powerful ball carrying and electric team off broken field.
But their discipline in the margins remains a huge negative. Watch their entry at the breakdown; oft flopping on their belly or their muddled defence, leaking soft tries. There’s a strong argument to start Owen Farrell at ten to control England’s superior disciplined physicality and field position.
Players with pace
That said, I’m delighted that Ford gets the nod; pace is England’s ultimate friend. In beating France in Twickenham, they struggled to lift their flagging pace when France emptied their bench. Ford needs more International matches and his team need him down the track.
Joe Schmidt has also made big decisions at four and 12 (in covering for Robbie Henshaw); perhaps a window to future selections?
Canada tend to shorten their lineout, especially in their 22. Jamie Cudmore will avoid the traditional down and up jump by setting in the crouch position off 3 man lineouts. He then springs upwards to win the aerial race, putting huge pressure on the Canadian throw.
Ireland, with four serious options, can launch their “hidden” playbook on Saturday, especially as Canada rarely contest in the air.
Canada will struggle with and off scrums. Their scrumhalf, Gordon McRorie, sets up defensively focused on the attacking backline move and slips away from shadowing our scrumhalf. This is a weakness and should be exploited, with backrow moves initially and then by attacking the space between McRorie and his defender at outhalf.
The irony for Canada’s defence is McRorie failed to push his backline out and hence placed himself in no-man’s land with no obvious defensive gain. He also struggles with his box kicking, which is often too long. But when he was forced onto his weaker left foot, he really struggled.
As always, the breakdown is where modern matches are decided. In order for Canada to keep the ball, they commit way too many. With 175 of them, both Fiji and Canada will struggle to contain England and Ireland.
Ireland should be especially conscious of how England bullied them in Twickenham and need to do likewise to Canada. Even with large breakdown numbers, Canada are paradoxically vulnerable to counter rucking. Turnovers will occur and Ireland can explode from anywhere. The Canadian breakdown fringe defence blindly follow the opposition ball and fail to push forward in their channels; Irish scrumhalf and blindside wingers to wreak havoc.
In truth, Canada are weak all over the park, which begs the question: how does Schmidt judge a winning performance? Yes, Ireland will win, but what motivates them? The process? Ireland will dominate the set piece and certainly the breakdown. So as the game unfolds, watch their use of possession.
Loose kicking
Due to “secrecy”, not too many explosive first-phase plays will be unleashed. But, as we have recently struggled to punish opposition loose kicking, an improvement here is welcomed. McRorie will certainly afford us opportunity, with yet another Irish back three facing the options; kick back for touch/regain or run back.
Recently we’ve struggled on the percentage returns from our aerial routes (mostly due to quality teams reading our tactic), and we certainly have lacked a cohesive methodology from the back.
Hence, a simple motivation; get the ball moving into areas of Canadian defensive weakness to punish their kicking error in preparation for future battles (and successful Cian Healy pitch time).
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