Rugby World Cup – Pool D Preview: Travelling with momentum, Samoa are not setting lofty goals for themselves in a group with reigning champions South Africa, writes John O'Sullivan.
The effect of Samoa’s 32-23 victory over Australia in July reverberated throughout the rugby-playing world. The resulting shockwaves were as strong as the thumping brutality of their tackling.
As a statement of intent, the Pacific island nation could not have been more eloquent in emphatically dismantling the challenge of the home side in Sydney.
It doesn’t matter that Australian coach Robbie Deans opted for a composite side, resting roughly 50 per cent of what might be argued is his strongest lineup. The Wallabies might seek and be granted mitigation about the fixture being the opening match in their test calendar that will culminate in New Zealand at the World Cup or that Samoa were battle hardened by the Pacific Nations Cup.
It was the nature of the Samoan performance that will have instilled a familiar sense of apprehension in the valleys of Wales, where World Cup nightmares are usually populated by baddies clad in blue.
On two previous occasions in the history of the tournament, Samoa has pillaged victories on Welsh soil.
The pool also contains another nemesis of recent vintage for Warren Gatland’s charges. Fiji knocked a Gareth Jenkins coached Wales out of the 2007 World Cup with a stunning 38-34 victory, deservedly celebrated as the most entertaining encounter in a largely dull tournament.
Then there is the small matter of contending with reigning world champions South Africa, under the baton of the eccentric Pieter de Villiers, and the Springboks’ next-door neighbours, Namibia.
World Cups have been largely painful experiences for Wales, who travel with expectations of Dickensian proportions but invariably return full of woe. Some of the recent headlines have been commandeered by off-pitch antics and contretemps.
Wales will play two matches in Gatland’s home town of Hamilton – Samoa and Fiji – and must contend with a fixture schedule that sees them play arguably their toughest two matches, against the Springboks and then Samoa, consecutively within the first seven days of the tournament.
If Gatland can calibrate Wales’ challenge in terms of personnel and patterns, they are capable of rattling anyone. The flip side of that equation is equally true and their prospects will be largely determined by those opening two matches.
The New Zealander faces a number of selection issues, not least on establishing the identity of his preferred outhalf and centre combination, a conundrum that involves Stephen Jones and James Hook. TheWelsh have a surfeit of pace in the back three, whatever combination, and with the return of long-term injury victim, prop Gethin Jenkins, a pack that is effective in all aspects of the game.
Key for Wales is that midfield creativity – and if they can strike that balance, they will be dangerous opponents. The schedule means Gatland will have to play his strongest side, or close to it, in those opening two matches.
The depth in the Welsh panel, injuries aside, shouldn’t be overextended by their clash with Namibia, with the final pool fixture pitting them against the team that ejected them from the tournament in 2007, Fiji. The bookies may or may not make them second favourites for pool honours but Wales won’t lack self-belief.
Springbok coach de Villiers has rendered the results of the Tri-Nations largely irrelevant, following his decision to leave 21 players behind when travelling to Australia and New Zealand. He’s sensibly prioritised the World Cup, mounting a spirited defence of their world crown.
Having courted controversy since taking over from Jake White – largely due to his unconventional views and tendency to make gaffes – he is used to the verbal flak. Just as his predecessor did, he has formed a strong bond with John Smit, the erudite and principled captain, lending the coach credibility among the players. Smit, though, must face his own critics – former Leinster and Bok prop Ollie le Roux has suggested Smit doesn’t merit a place – while another, his former mentor White, advised the Springbok captain to retire earlier this year.
This is the same White who opined in a magazine article: “In all the years of John’s captaincy there’s never been an unhappy customer, not one voice of rebellion against the leadership. He is the glue that holds the Springboks together.”
De Villiers knows that many consider Bismarck du Plessis to be the better hooker. The fact that Smit can play prop may give the coach a little wriggle room. The Bok captain is hoping to become the first player to lead his country to successive World Cup victories before taking up an 18-month contract with Saracens after the tournament.
The Springboks have many of the team that prevailed in France four years ago. One or two issues at prop aside, they have a gargantuan pack, a brilliant line-out led by Victor Matfield and some of the best athletes in world rugby in the back row.
Like Wales, a central issue will be getting the midfield right, with the choice between Morne Steyn and the more creative Patrick Lambie at outhalf instructive on how they’ll look to play. De Villiers knows that injuries at centre to Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie could be seriously debilitating.
The victory over Australia gave Samoa huge impetus and belief to carry into the tournament and, provided they retain their discipline, they will have a real shot at the quarter-finals. One minor cavil will be their fixture schedule, which sees them with just a four-day turnaround between the Namibia and Wales matches, and five days between their derby against Pacific Island neighbours Fiji and the Springboks.
Coach Dickie Tafua travels in expectation, not hope, confirming succinctly: “We have no stars. Our goal is to qualify for the quarter-finals. We want to entertain with our style but, more importantly, we want to win.”
To realise that ambition, Samoa will need to avoid injuries among their frontline players without compromising on their commitment to concussive defence.
Fiji demonstrated in snatches against New Zealand in July – they were the victims of some poor refereeing – that they possess the flair and ball-handling skills to trouble any team. They will need to work on their set piece but if they can eke out a platform possession-wise then they have the latent talent to beat most teams.
They had two players sent off in their final game against eventual Pacific Nations Cup winners’ Japan: like Samoa, retaining discipline is fundamental to their ambitions.
Namibia have never won a match in the World Cup but their summer form in beating Romania, Scotland A and Georgia to claim the Nations Cup suggests an upward performance graph under coach Johan Diergaardt.
As Ireland discovered in 2007, the Namibians can constitute sticky opposition.
The physical collisions in this pool are going to place a huge emphasis on the depth in the respective squads and in that respect the Springboks should manage that remit best of all.
Wales, Samoa and Fiji will all entertain genuine hopes with the clash between the first two in the second round of games having a pivotal effect on the final standings. Pool D looks like it is going to be the most entertaining and competitive.
