Republic of Ireland v Ukraine
Aviva Stadium - Live RTÉ, 7.45pm
If this is truly a results business, Ukraine’s arrival in Dublin presents the opportune moment for an upturn in the record of Republic of Ireland manager Stephen Kenny.
Despite a record of just five wins from 23 internationals, offset by four coming in the last seven matches, Kenny is unwilling to accept Armenia deserved their 1-0 victory in the opening Nations League match last Saturday in Yerevan.
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“We weren’t creative enough in that last half hour,” Kenny conceded of defeat to a country ranked 92nd by Fifa. “They defended well against us and we only have ourselves to blame in that regard. But it is a game that we should have won. We should not have lost.”
But lose they did. The fact remains Ireland have not achieved a victory of substance on Kenny’s watch.
“Ukraine is a different challenge, a very attacking 4-3-3, they have the flexibility to play 3-4-2-1 as well.”
If only the same could be said of Ireland’s formation, which looks fluid against elite opposition like Portugal, Serbia and Belgium − all three left the Aviva Stadium with draws in recent months – only to turn rigid against defensive-minded minnows.
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Hosting Ukraine in 2022 carries more symbolism than any mere football match can conjure, due to Russia waging war across their country, and in the wake of Oleksandr Petrakov’s team being denied a place at the World Cup in Qatar by Wales last Sunday, the prevailing emotional energy makes this meeting impossible to predict.
For Ukrainian players and supporters it represents another sporting stage to protest the invasion as the FAI welcomes 2,000 refugees to the Aviva as guests.
On form alone, they are a superior attacking side but Petrakov is certain to dip into his squad following draining nights in Glasgow and Cardiff.
“Even if they make changes, and they have made changes right throughout the [World Cup] campaign, they have rotated their midfield, Shaparenko and Sydorchuk have played regularly for them, and both are really good players,” said Kenny of pre-match analysis that can be questioned after the Irish management were caught unawares by Armenia’s five-man defence.
“The five subs they brought on [against Wales] are very, very strong. They have a lot of depth, Ukraine, and I think we’ve seen in both games, particularly Scotland, that they have a lot of quality.”
Enormous responsibility rests on Jeff Hendrick to thread passes that create better opportunities for Callum Robinson and Chiedozie Ogbene. Either that or Ireland must unearth another creative force.
Kenny will resist wholesale changes but Jason Knight’s previous ability to dovetail with the established attacking duo puts pressure on Troy Parrott, who was ineffective in Yerevan.
Will Smallbone’s sensational form for the under-21s, particularly his stunning strike against Montenegro on Tuesday, has tempted Kenny to think outside the current squad in order to avoid another crisis that this time cannot be blamed on pandemic restrictions.
“The Will Smallbone situation, I’ve to reflect on that,” Kenny mused, having witnessed the Southampton midfielder in Tallaght alongside sturdy under-21s captain Conor Coventry. “He’s had a good game yesterday. I just want him to focus on playing against a good Italian team, and see how he gets on.
“[We are] not in a hurry to make too many changes at the moment . . . but he definitely has a future with the senior international team if he continues in that vein of form.”
Séamus Coleman’s groin injury means the captain joins Gavin Bazunu – whose back issue has been upgraded to a “minor rib fracture” – on the unavailable list, so Kenny suggested that the club-less Cyrus Christie will win a 30th cap.
Switching Ogbene to wide right, where he helped Rotherham United gain promotion to the Championship, is unlikely, even if it would free space to retain Parrott and bring Knight into the starting line-up.
“Chiedozie has been in great form in the front three,” said Kenny. “He has been one of our better players over the last number of games. He gives us pace in the final third and gives us a real cutting edge to our play. More so against teams who come and play against you.
“As a wing back, he is still learning the position even though he plays there for his club. But they play differently. We find that he is more effective in a front three for us.
“We have other options with Cyrus Christie coming into strong consideration.”
Expectations of Ireland bouncing back with a victory are diluted by Ukraine being the better team with a life or death need to remain in the European news cycle while gifting their embattled people flecks of joy. It is unreasonable to presume that Ireland can match such powerful motivations.
Republic of Ireland (possible): Kelleher; Collins, Duffy (c), Egan; Christie, Hendrick, Cullen, McClean; Ogbene, Robinson, Knight.
Ukraine (possible): Bushchan; Karavaev, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko; Shaparenko, Sydorchuk, Zinchenko; Yarmolenko, Dovbyk, Mudryk.
Referee: Filip Glova (Solvakia).
