What needs to happen for Ireland to qualify for last 16?

Ireland’s defeat to Belgium on Saturday has certainly derailed the chances of qualification for the last 16, but all hope is not lost. That’s thanks to the fact that the four best third-placed teams also qualify this year, due to the new expanded tournament.

So what does Ireland need to do and what needs to happen for Martin O’Neill’s squad to book their place in the last 16.

Firstly, Italy are now through to the last 16 with six points. Only Belgium can top the group ahead of the Italians on goal difference if they beat Sweden by two goals and Ireland beat Italy.

The chances of Ireland doing that on Wednesday will have been boosted however by Italy’s win over Sweden last Friday. Antonio Conte will now most likely rest players for the final group game in Lille.

In particular Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Eder, Danielle De Rossi, Leonardo Bonucci and Thiago Motta may be left out of the starting 11, as all are on yellow cards. Another booking for any of those players would see them suspended for Italy’s last 16 tie before card records are cleared in the quarter-finals.

On to the permutations, then. Albania’s win over Romania in Group A means the Albanians have finished third with three points. In Group B Slovakia currently sit third with three points after two games, Northern Ireland occupy the same spot with the same points in Group C, Czech Republic lie third with one point in Group D and it’s Portugal who are third with two points in Group F.

Therefore, a win for Ireland against Italy would see Martin O’Neill’s side finish with four points and make it through to the last 16 if either the Czech Republic fail to beat Turkey and Portugal fail to beat Hungary.

If Portugal were to beat Hungary and Iceland draw with Austria, Ireland would also qualify, as their four points would be superior to the three of Iceland as well as the three of Albania.

In trouble

However, there is also the possibility that Ireland could go out with four points. If the Czech Republic beat Turkey in Group D, while in Group F Portugal beat Hungary and Iceland beat Austria, then Ireland would be in trouble.

Czech Republic and Iceland would both qualify as best third-placed teams on goal difference ahead of Ireland, while Albania would go out with three points.

However, that could change in the unlikely event that Ireland beat Italy by three or more goals and surpass Czech Republic or Iceland’s goal difference.

That means that Ireland would be relying on either Germany to beat Northern Ireland (currently on three points) or England to beat Slovakia (currently on three points).

So the bottom line is that a win against Italy does not guarantee Ireland a passage into the last 16. A loss would obviously result in an early exit.

A draw would also not be enough because there are already three third-placed teams with more than two points (as outlined earlier) and the other two – Portugal (two points) and Czech Republic (one point) – have superior goal differences to Ireland.

So, nothing less than a win is needed on Wednesday if Martin O’Neill’s team are to qualify.

As for who Ireland could play if they qualified from third place, it’s complicated.

The winner of Group A will play the third-placed team from Group C, D or E; the winner of Group B will play the third-placed team from Group A, C, or D; the winner of Group C will play the third-placed team from Group A, B or F; the winner of Group D will play the third-placed team from Group B, E or F.

That means that, if Ireland qualify in third place they will face either the winner of Group A (France) or the winner of Group D (certain to be Spain unless Croatia beat them in their final game).

Whether it’s the winner of Group A or the winner of Group D depends on which groups provide the four best third-placed teams.