SYLVA PARADISE has the right credentials for today's £75,000 added Ladbroke Ayr Gold Cup. Although there's no easy way to tackle this 29 runner cavalry charge, we can draw on some lessons from history to whittle down the number with a serious chance.
For openers, 14 winners in the last 20 years have been aged three or four. Older horses have a chance but in a race like this it really helps to side with an animal who might have a bit of improvement to come.
Secondly, only three horses have managed to shoulder over 9st to success in the race since 1976. Finally, it makes sense to side with a horse race fit and in form, preferably with a good recent run in a similarly big handicap.
Clive Brittain's colt has been very consistent bar one poor run behind Coastal Bluff in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood. And he bounced back to form at Doncaster last week when a running on length and a quarter second of 21 to Musical Season in a £17,000 handicap. That was over five and a half furlongs and this slightly longer trip should be in his favour.
Sylva Paradise is quite lightly raced, has a touch of class and plenty of experience of a big race's burly burly. And with Brittain's string in good fettle he makes the journey from Newmarket with more than a fighting chance.
Later, Lord Advocate, who ran over a hopelessly inadequate trip at Hamilton last time, can spring a surprise in the Johnnie Walker Whisky Handicap.
Bank on Ballynakelly to gain his eighth win a row in the £20,000 added Tote Bookmakers Autumn Cup Handicap at Newbury.
It would be easy to assume that Reg Akehurst's gelding must be in the handicapper's grip by now, as he will race off a mark 26lb higher today than when his successful sequence began at Lingfield last November.
But the four year old has improved no end since then and continued on the upgrade when beating Jiyush by one and a half lengths at Sandown last month. That form has received a big boost since as the runner up went on to score at York and Yarmouth, on the latter occasion in most impressive fashion.
Ballynakelly is 6lb higher here but has not had much racing - this is only his sixth outing of 1996 and could get better still. He gets the nap vote to land this valuable prize en route to a tilt at next month's Fote Cesarewitch at Newmarket.
Expect the money to be down on Spinning Mouse at Catterick.