ON RUGBY:The coming campaign may go a long way toward determining whether the French clubs are set to dominate in Europe for several years, writes GERRY THORNLEY

THE MEMORY of that May Bank Holiday weekend refuses to go away. In truth, the scars on the Irish rugby psyche of the Heineken Cup semi-final defeats in Toulouse and San Sebastian, coming hard on the heels of Toulon’s win over Connacht, were more damaging and will take more healing than even Ireland’s defeat at home to Scotland in the Croker farewell and Six Nations finale.

It wasn’t so much the losing of those semi-finals, more the manner of them that hurt. The feeling lingered, perhaps a tad unfairly on the Scots, that Ireland’s daring approach was part of their own undoing, and that they would not have been so ambitious had there been a Grand Slam or Six Nations title at stake.

Ireland had played plenty of rugby and scored more tries against the Scots, but Leinster and Munster were simply over-powered by Toulouse and Biarritz, with the scrums as the wrecking point – and Biarritz, who only squeezed into this season’s cup as France’s seventh qualifier, were a long way from their vintage best.

The net result was that all-French final. With the carrot of a final at the Stade de France, it was always likely the French clubs would make an extra effort in the H Cup, but it also coincided with a growing feeling there has been a power shift in European rugby away from the Magners League and the English Premiership to the Top 14.

Matt Williams is far from alone in expressing the view that the French clubs are set to dominate in Europe for several years, and the coming campaign may go a long way toward determining whether that is true.

It’s revealing to note that Paddy Power’s odds on a French team lifting the Heineken Cup this season are 5 to 6, with an English winner priced 5 to 2, an Irish winner 11 to 2 and a Welsh winner 7 to 1.

Compared to this time last year, when the English were quoted at the same odds and the Welsh at half a point longer, the big movers are the French and the Irish. The French were favourites then too, but at 11 to 8, while the Irish (having provided the winners in three of the previous four years) were 2 to 1 second favourites.

To take the French first: perhaps that is evidence of the feeling that they are the ones on an upward curve, and this is hardly surprising when you consider their spending power. After Brive came and went, Toulouse remained the standard-bearers, with Biarritz and Stade Francais adding weight to the French challenge. Then along came Clermont Auvergne and, to a lesser extent, Perpignan.

These five also formed something of an exclusive club atop their championship as well, but in the last three years Toulon and Racing Metro have re-emerged from the wilderness of the ProD2 to become heavyweights in the Top 14.

As with radio entrepreneur Max Guazzini at Stade Francais, this has been thanks in the main to the largesse of their benefactors cum chairmen, property tycoon Jacky Lorenzetti and comic book millionaire Mourad Boudjellal – the Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Roman Abramovich of French rugby.

So it was that while Toulon lost their brilliant, talismanic centre Sonny Bill Williams to the lure of playing for the All Blacks at the next World Cup, they could add the likes of George Smith and Carl Hayman to a list of expensive, stellar names including Jonny Wilkinson, Felipe Contepomi and Juan Fernandez-Lobbe.

Similarly, Racing Metro could supplement the likes of Sebastien Chabal, rumoured to be on €1 million per year, his long-time friend Lionel Nallet, Francois Steyn (said to be on €750,000) and others with a couple of players formerly with their Parisian rivals Stade Francais, Juan Martin Hernandez and Mirko Bergamasco.

So adept has their prolific outhalf Jonathan Wisniewski proved that the more unpredictable Hernandez has been something of a luxury item in their fairly structured if ultra-physical and powerful game. As it happens, Hernandez has been ruled out of this weekend’s trip to the RDS, along with their converted fullback Benjamin Fall, a summer signing from Bayonne, while there is a doubt about Wisniewski.

Nor are the French clubs encumbered by things such as salary caps (in the case of the English clubs) or limits on foreign imports and central contracts (as with the Irish). Thus, whereas Leinster, Munster and Ulster are limited to five foreign players, a quick scan through the Toulon and Racing playing roster shows they each have 20 non-French qualified players, while Leinster’s other French pool opponents, Clermont, have 18.

However, for all their physical and financial muscle, the regularly televised fare from the Top 14 has not been especially frightening. The referees have still tended to hog the show, while not applying the edicts regarding tacklers releasing players, the hindmost foot or players advancing in front of kickers. And amid what appears a surfeit of tit-for-tat penalties, there have been a host of tight, attritional games with plenty of kicking and losing bonus points to the away sides.

Ironically, Leinster and Munster have been drawn with the two nouveau riche powerhouses of French rugby in this season’s cup. Along with all those other factors, there is perhaps growing evidence that perhaps Munster and Leinster peaked with their triumphs in 2006, ’08 and ’09.

The longer odds also reflect the fiendishly difficult groups both Irish teams have been drawn in. Leinster’s, as Joe Schmidt has noticed, could not actually have been any tougher based on the seedings, and accordingly they are joint second favourites with Saracens behind Clermont.

Although Munster are marginal favourites to win a group which pits them first away to the Premiership leaders, London Irish, arguably the biggest dangers are the Ospreys.

Accordingly, the odds on no Irish team advancing to the quarter-finals are a mere 15 to 8, and would perhaps be even shorter were the reinforced Ulster not for once favourably drawn.

What the provinces have achieved in Europe has been remarkable really, but it ain’t getting any easier.