Lawrie Smith's hopes of outright victory in the Whitbread Round the World race rests with the ability of his crew on board Silk Cut to turn around an apparently disastrous seventh place in the nine-boat fleet.
While few can doubt the enormity of the task facing the 12-man crew, a reversal of fortune, especially in this most unpredictable of events, is still on the cards - but only just.
However the fifth leg, which has nine stages beginning on Sunday, takes the fleet further south than ever before and into more icy waters. Most veteran crews would agree that the second leg sortie into the southern ocean in November was milder than expected, though the full force of the Roaring Forties and Screaming Sixties is anticipated in this leg.
World 24-hour Monohull record-holder Smith has, by popular acclaim, been crowned "King of the Southern Ocean" with rival crews openly expressing their admiration. Even race leader Paul Cayard, the skipper of EF Language, is tipping Smith for a leg win when the race reaches Sao Sebastiao in Brazil.
Irish interest on board the British boat lies with second in command Gordan Maguire and he is now bitingly realistic for their hopes of a successful leg. "This is a do-or-die leg for us. Without a result, we can kiss winning the Whitbread goodbye," he told The Irish Times in Auckland, New Zealand, yesterday. Fortunately, the change in the race rules that allocates points instead of accumulated times for each leg has prolonged the chance of a reprieve.
"This will be another leg of two halves - 4,500 miles to Cape Horn, with a slow start and little or no wind for the first two days, followed by a typical Whitbread race south into the breeze," predicts Maguire. "The second half of the race - 2,200 miles - will be incredibly light with variable, shifty winds and is probably where the race will be won and lost."
Although Maguire wouldn't be drawn on who was likely to take leg honours he is not tipping Cayard as a potential winner. "Paul Cayard does not know how to down-shift," emphasised Maguire. "It was his problem on leg two and it will be his problem on leg five." Cayard, however, has surprised many with his knack of putting in worthwhile results. In fact, he could almost allow a drop in leg five if a return to his usual standard for the remainder of the race was to follow.
