STRAWBERRY ROAN can give racing a glimpse of the future by giving young training maestro Aidan O'Brien his first classic success in today's Airlie Coolmore Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh.
Such has been the impact of O'Brien (27), on flat racing in the short time since taking over the famous Ballydoyle stables that predictions of a dominance of Irish racing that was once the preserve of his namesake Vincent are already being made. So far those forecasts have been made on potential and quantity of winners, but Strawberry Roan looks the type of filly to start realising the younger O'Brien's classic potential.
Strawberry Roan has always been regarded as potentially top class, but the perception had been that distances in excess of a mile would see her show her best. Her two races this year, however, have indicated that if she is to win a classic, it's likely to be this Guineas rather than any Oaks.
Her first effort was over 10 furlongs when comprehensively beaten by Casey Tibbs. But after significant improvement for that race, Leopardstown's Guineas Trial over a mile showed a totally different filly. Ridden for speed, Strawberry Roan easily put three and a half lengths between herself and Welsh Queen on yielding to soft ground. Circumstances look to have come together perfectly for her today.
The quartet of British trained horses present a formidable challenge on paper, but a combination of the stiff Curragh mile and the forecast yielding to soft ground could make that paper challenge look much less formidable.
Certainly, both Oh Nellie and Dazzle, second and third to the brilliant Sleepytime in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, are smart fillies. But Dazzle looked to only barely last out the trip at Newmarket, and there must also be doubts about the front running Oh Nellie dominating this kind of race over this kind of course.
Ian Balding's Seebe ran above herself when runner up in the French Guineas, but this softish ground is regarded as being far from ideal, while Ryafan, the Prix Marcel Boussac winner last October, is an unknown quantity making her seasonal debut.
O'Brien supplies two other fillies in the race, but Strawberry Roan is the clear number one and it's not difficult to see why. In a race where question marks can be placed next to most of her opponents, she looks the least vulnerable. Sure to stay, proven on the ground and ridden to suit, she looks a reasonable bet to be the start to something big.
The main supporting race today, the Weatherbys Ireland Greenland Stakes, should feature a fascinating cameo. On official ratings, this Group 3 sprint looks in the bag for the Jersey Stakes winner Lucayan Prince, who ended last year as the best sprinting three year old in Europe. But racing is rarely that simple and Lucayan Prince certainly isn't.
David Loder's talented colt must only see daylight at the last possible moment in a race to be seen at his best, and in these sprints he always faces the danger of getting a less than clear run.
Harbour Master, a winner here last month, looks to be the stable preferred on riding plans, and since O'Brien has the best form lines of anyone to the rest of these, it should pay to row along with the Bluebird colt.
