The Munster champions will be determined to atone for last year's semi-final defeat, writes NICKY ENGLISH, hurling analyst

ANY CHANCE of an upset tomorrow is dependent upon the Limerick forwards causing damage above their current average return. That means Andrew O’Shaughnessy and Ollie Moran must catch fire while Niall Moran needs to have recovered from his broken finger.

Limerick need goals. They cannot be over-reliant on the free-taking of Gavin O’Mahony, but if the aforementioned hit form then full forward, Paudie McNamara, can play a valuable role in setting goals up, especially for O’Shaughnessy.

But there are so many other facets to an All-Ireland semi-final between Tipperary and their neighbours. I live close to the west Tipperary–east Limerick border and an intense rivalry has always existed in the area for hurling bragging rights.

Historically, Limerick have always fostered the belief that they always have a chance of derailing the Tipperary bandwagon. This was apparent most recently in 2007 when Tipp looked capable of racking up a heavy margin of victory over the three-game series, but sheer stubbornness eventually saw Limerick prevail.

They also beat us in the 1996 replay after coming back from 11 points down at half-time in the drawn match.

Even Richie Bennis said this week that Tipperary are worried about Limerick, but Limerick are not worried about Tipperary. It is assisted by Tipperary’s recent poor performances in Croke Park, particularly in comparison to Limerick’s, most notably at this juncture last year when Tipp failed to ever get going against a Waterford team that bullied them from the outset.

Limerick bring a wealth of experience to bear on proceedings, but last season’s hurt should ensure Tipperary deal solely with the game and this moment in time.

When coldly analysing both teams on current form, Limerick can be perceived in a relatively poor state from where they would aspire to be at. I saw them down in Páirc Uí Chaoimh during the league against Cork and was very impressed. David Breen is a real find, Donal O’Grady is back in top form and Niall Moran’s performance also led me to believe they would beat Waterford in the Munster championship.

Granted, the drawn game was a poor spectacle, played in terrible conditions, but really Breen’s late chance should have won that game. The second day they were well beaten. Recovering to win in Wexford Park, never an easy scalp, was commendable and they did enough to see off Dublin in Thurles.

Looking for weaknesses, it comes back to their lack of scoring power. True, this is offset by the vastly experienced defence that, bar O’Mahony, featured in the 2007 All-Ireland final but O’Shaughnessy and Ollie Moran must unburden the load Paudie McNamara and James Ryan has been carrying this summer.

McNamara gave Dublin full back Tomás Brady a torrid time in the quarter-final, turning him cleanly on two occasions, one of which led to the first Limerick goal.

Tipperary will seek to expose this solid defensive alignment by moving them around and running through the middle. Croke Park is a big pitch, but Tony Browne showed us all last week that you don’t need to be 20 years old to close down a young forward.

Limerick will also bring their physicality to bear, although I’d be amazed if Tipperary allow themselves to be bullied in the same manner as they were by Waterford last season.

It many ways, this match is about atoning for that defeat. Liam Sheedy and his players must be keen to redress the balance. They looked drained in last year’s semi-final, perhaps after an arduous Munster campaign, but there is an argument to suggest – or from a Tipp man’s perspective, hope – they have yet to operate on full throttle.

The current Tipperary pattern this season has seen a period of fantastic dominance followed by near collapse, allowing Cork and Clare reel them back in while Waterford appeared to run out of time in the provincial final. The forwards are a microcosm of this Jekyll and Hyde approach. At times they look untouchable, threatening to run amok, but as events evolve they are frantically trying to win any type of ball.

For this Tipperary team to finally reach an All-Ireland final they must maintain a high tempo and not allow Limerick get amongst them or drag matters into the low scoring sphere. The signs are encouraging with Conor O’Mahony and Shane McGrath, two hugely important players, nearing their best form in the Munster final. Much like ‘Cha’ Fitzpatrick in Kilkenny, a dose of the mumps sapped them of required energy levels for several weeks this summer. Brendan Maher coming into the half back line is another bonus as he is a natural wing back.

Larry Corbett, Eoin Kelly and John O’Brien need to lead and exert a sustained ball-winning and scoring presence thus allowing Noel McGrath to continue his decent form without shouldering the burden of previous games.

All told, Tipperary’s superior pace and scoring power should allow them banish the Croke Park memories of 2008.