Trusted formula to end play-off jinx

Quiet confidence exuded from the Irish camp here in Tehran as they came close to the completion of their preparations for this…

Quiet confidence exuded from the Irish camp here in Tehran as they came close to the completion of their preparations for this afternoon's World Cup showdown with Iran at the Azadi Stadium. Neither Mick McCarthy, nor the handful of senior FAI officials who hovered about his daily press conference, were getting carried away with the situation they find themselves in but all know well that victory is within Ireland's grasp this time.

Saturday's 2-0 win in Dublin has put McCarthy's side in a position that bears no resemblance to the one they occupied when travelling to either Brussels or Bursa for the conclusion of their last two campaigns. Forced to chase the games there, they left defeated and licked their wounds on the journey home.

Now the hope is that this evening's much longer flight back into Dublin will provide a welcome opportunity for a prolonged and overdue celebration.

McCarthy cast his mind back to 1989 yesterday and the last time he celebrated with a squad that had just qualified for a major championships. He remembered the feeling well, he said, though not as well, he added, as the agonies of Belgium and Turkey.

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The Ireland manager again suggested he is a better manager now than on those occasions and that his team is better too. All the recent evidence points to him being right on both counts, although we will not be able to fully gauge his improvement until after the events of this afternoon.

Everything McCarthy has said over these past couple of weeks implies he has learned the lesson of Zagreb in 1999 when he entrusted his players with the task of defending deep and in numbers against the Croatians in the hope they would escape with a draw.

His line has always been that they came desperately close, Davor Suker only scoring for the home team deep into injury-time, but the reality is that Ireland's shortcomings as a defensive unit were cruelly exposed. Since then the Irish have sought to win games and, in doing so, discovered a formula that allows them to play to their strengths in much the same way as McCarthy and his team-mates did a decade or so ago under Jack Charlton.

The extent of the improvement in this campaign has been unmistakable and in the circumstances it is almost unthinkable that McCarthy would tinker with a formula that has brought his side so far over the past 15 months.

His tendency, in fact, is to stick with what has gone well for him in the recent past and so, having been unable to name a side yesterday because of the lingering problems over Niall Quinn and Steve Staunton, he is almost certain to stick as closely as he can to the one that won 2-0 on Saturday when he finally reveals his starting line-up.

Both Quinn and Staunton trained yesterday afternoon which is, of course, encouraging but the general feeling from within the camp afterwards was that Staunton is much more likely than Quinn to start.

Given the ease with which the Iranians coped with Quinn on Saturday, his absence may not turn out to be the most severe of blows. David Connolly's recent displays for the Republic may not have been particularly memorable but there are definite weaknesses in Miroslav Blazevic's defence. The added mobility that the Wimbledon striker will bring to the game, one in which the home side's need to press forward should create space to roam, may well be better suited to Ireland's needs.

Defensively, Staunton may prove to be more of a loss although Saturday's display would tend to support the contention that when everybody is fit, the Dundalkman should be partnered by Kenny Cunningham rather than Gary Breen.

If Staunton fails to pass a late test then Cunningham, rather than Richard Dunne or Andy O'Brien, is likely to play. However, while Cunningham is a more than capable replacement, Staunton's ability to turn defence into attack with a long, well-weighted ball into space for the strikers may be sorely missed.

Elsewhere, there should only be the replacement of Roy Keane with Mark Kinsella, a straightforward enough swap which should be painless for the team, given the Charlton skipper's form in the past for his country and in recent weeks for his club.

With Blazevic expected to make just one change, Mojahed Khaziravi for Alireza Vahedinikbahkt on the left side of midfield, there should be a familiar look about Ireland's opposition. And while the Iranian approach is certain to be starkly different, there is every reason to believe the Irish will be rewarded if they stick to what they have come to know best - taking the game to their opponents and showing a tenacity that has frustrated much better sides than the one they face today.

PROBABLE TEAMS

IRELAND: Given (Newcastle United); Finnan (Fulham), Breen (Coventry City), Staunton (Aston Villa), Harte (Leeds United); McAteer (Sunderland), Holland (Ipswich Town), Kinsella (Charlton Athletic), Kilbane (Sunderland); Connolly (Wimbledon), Keane (Leeds United).

IRAN: Mirzapour (Foolad); Peyrovani (Pirouzi), Golmohammadi (Foolad), Rezaei (Perugia); Mahdivikia (SV Hamburg, Ger), Kavianpour (Pirouzi), Bagheri (Unattached), Minavand (Sturm Graz, Aut), Khaziravi (Esteghlal); Daei (Hertha Berlin, Ger), Karimi (Al Ah li, UAE).

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone is Work Correspondent at The Irish Times