Cycling Tour de France Stage 14 details: Lance Armstrong has not yet lost this Tour de France, but after hanging on to the lead with a desperate rearguard action for the third day in succession he is clearly coming to terms with the possibility that on Sunday he will ride into Paris without the yellow jersey for the first time in five years.
"If I get to the time trial in Nantes with 15 seconds (lead) and lose by 16 seconds, it will be the closest Tour de France finish in history and I'll go home, have a cold beer, then come back and try again next year. I'm not going to cry and whine."
There is another possibility: Armstrong may return to the effervescent time-trialling that marked his four Tour wins. "Everyone forgets a lot of things," he said yesterday. "If I have 15 seconds before the last time trial, with the form of two or three years ago, I would be okay."
However, he also admitted what has become clear over the past week: he is not the man he was. He accepted that talk of his decline was "fair".
"It's obvious I'm not as good as in years past. You can look at the times for certain climbs, to ride four minutes slower up l'Alpe d'Huez, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out that I'm not as fast as two years ago.
"Something is not clicking. Something has not gone right, but there's nothing I can do about that. All I can do is get up in the morning and do my best."
The change could be seen over the weekend. On Saturday, when Jan Ullrich made his move two kilometres from the finish, Armstrong simply could not respond. Until the gradient eased he looked devoid of power.
Yesterday on the Col de Peyresourde, while Ullrich made the pace behind Alexandre Vinokourov, Armstrong was unable to climb in his usual style. In his four successful Tours he climbed sitting in the saddle, spinning the pedals at unnaturally high speed. Yesterday, clinging on to Ullrich's back wheel, he was forced to stand up - "dancing", as the French put it - and use his arms to help force his legs round like a mere mortal.
"I said to myself, 'Shit, I'm standing up a lot.' If it was in the rules you have to climb sitting down, I'd have been dropped. I'm still not 100 per cent and when you are lacking form you have to rough it." And it shows: when Armstrong "roughs it" he looks ragged.
If he himself cannot explain the reasons for his decline, they can be suggested. There is probably no single reason but rather a combination of factors. He is now 31, and it is usually held that a cyclist's strength declines gently after he passes 30. The American had a troubled build-up to the Tour, from his marital difficulties to rumoured disagreements with his team manager and the cancellation of the Midi Libre race, which had formed an integral part of his 2002 preparation.
In addition, Armstrong, who had not crashed badly in the six years since his comeback from cancer, finally encountered a little ill luck. A high-speed crash in the Dauphine Libere in June damaged his back, and the antibiotics to treat his cuts gave him a stomach upset. The back pain resurfaced after his crash on the first road race stage of the Tour at Meaux, and a chiropractor was brought post-haste from Italy.
In building fitness, a cyclist seeks to improve every area, to gain half of one per cent in, for example, ten different fields. The same applies when things go wrong; one minor difficulty can be overcome; half a dozen can tip the balance.
Today is not quite Armstrong's last chance, but he will not have a better one. In his four previous Tour wins he destroyed the opposition in the mountaintop finishes. Today is the last of the three such finishes in this Tour and it is probably his last chance to gain time on Ullrich. "I'll go flat out and try my luck." He has no alternative.
Guardian Service
Saint-Giron to Loudenville (191.5km) : 1 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 5 hrs 31 mins 52 secs; 2 Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Alessio; 3 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick Step, both same time; 4 Andrea Peron (Ita) Team CSC at 3 secs; 5 Walter Beneteau (Fra) Brioches 10; 6 Alexander Vinokourov (Kaz) Team Telekom 41; 7 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel; 8 Steve Zampieri (Swi) Vini Caldirola both s.t.; 9 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel 1:24; 10 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo; 11 Lance Armstrong (US) US Postal Service; 12 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi all s.t.; 13 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 2:14; 14 Daniele Nardello (Ita) Team Telekom 3:04; 15 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) AG2R s.t.; 16 Denis Menchov (Rus) iBanesto.com 4:31; 17 Tyler Hamilton (US) Team CSC; 18 Joerg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE; 19 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com; 20 Peter Luettenberger (Aut) Team CSC s.t.
Leading overall standings: 1 Armstrong 61:07:17; 2 Ullrich 15 seconds behind; 3 Vinokourov 18; 4 Zubeldia 4:16; 5 Mayo 4:37; 6 Basso 7:01; 7 Hamilton 7:32; 8 Mancebo 10:09; 9 Moreau s.t.; 10 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 12.40; 11 Virenque 12:51; 12 Menchov 13:37; 13 Georg Totschnig (Aus) Gerolsteiner 15:08; 14 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal Service 15:50; 15 Dufaux 17:21; 16 Didier Rous (Fra) Brioches 19:30; 17 Jorg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE 20:29; 18 Roberto Laiseka (Spa) Euskaltel 20:47; 19 Luettenberger (Austria) 20:56
20 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal Service 24:24.
Points standings: 1 Baden Cooke (Aus) FDJeux.com 156 pts; 2 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Lotto 148; 2 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Credit Agricole 132; 4 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Telekom 126; 5 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Credit Agricole 122
King of the Mountain standings: 1 Virenque 300; 2 Dufaux 163; 3 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Quick Step 98; 4 Armstrong 96; 5 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal 90
Team points: 1 Team CSC 180:55:46; 2 iBanesto.com 9 mins 4 secs behind; 3 Euskaltel 12:24; 4 US Postal Service 17:57; 5 Team Bianchi 50:01
Youth (under-25): 1 Menchov 61:20:54
