GAELIC GAMES:Waterford's return to a cavalier approach is welcome but they need a defiant aerial display from their leaders, writes NICKY ENGLISH

MOST PEOPLE have already written off the two All-Ireland semi-finals. In recent discussions about hurling it keeps coming back to Kilkenny versus Tipperary part III, yet both must still make the penultimate leap. There are two more victories required to capture Liam MacCarthy and neither Waterford nor Dublin next week will lie down.

If either Tipp or Brian Cody’s men allow themselves to start thinking about playing the other in September then a surprise could easily occur. Having said that, I struggle to see Waterford overcoming Kilkenny tomorrow but I can see them improving on the five-point defeat in this fixture two years ago.

I think it will be that tight.

By defeating Galway in such an impressive manner, Waterford immediately recovered from the massive humiliation visited upon them by Tipperary. This also re-established them as a genuine hurling power.

Take last month’s disastrous provincial final out of consideration for a moment and they remain the most likely county to bridge the gap between the big two and the rest. Not Galway – as was so emphatically proved in Thurles two weeks ago. Think also of their display in winning the Munster title last year along with all the other great provincial days in recent times.

Waterford showed a tremendous amount of character – both management and players – to come back from the thrashing they received in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. Playing Michael ‘Brick’ Walsh at full back that day was an obvious mistake but Davy Fitzgerald appears to have learnt several valuable lessons from that whole experience. It should also be noted that everything ran for Tipperary that day.

Walsh was superb at centre back against Galway so I’d expect them to set up in a similar fashion. The tactics and positioning against Galway were a return to their traditional, cavalier approach to hurling. And it worked. True, they fought harder and, to a man, worked on dominating their direct opponent but they were also set up like you expect a Waterford team.

They showed plenty of heart but were also tactically astute in exposing Galway’s weakness at puck-outs with constant harassment around the middle third.

Séamus Prendergast shone and Shane Walsh was excellent in everything he did although I have some concern over the form of John Mullane. Mullane was good against Galway and certainly improved upon his Munster final outing, when, in fairness, he was starved of decent ball, but it looked to me like he was a bit anxious, not as sure on the ball as you would expect.

That can’t be evident on his return to Croke Park. Mullane’s performance tomorrow, I expect, will embody Waterford’s stance in general. They have nothing to lose. Nothing except the fear of travelling home after another hammering by Kilkenny if they fail to reach full potential. That should rustle enough quality from them to make it a serious contest.

If that is their mindset this might just be the moment when Waterford let it all come out in an All-Ireland semi-final against the major power of the era. It is interesting that we are presented with the reverse fixtures from the Leinster and Munster finals. I imagine neither defeated team will allow themselves to be shook around again.

The chances of a shock, however, fade when factoring in Waterford’s seven-goal defeat to Tipperary coupled with the manner that Kilkenny dismissed Dublin in the Leinster final. Kilkenny have already proved they are by no means a spent force. Their reaction to the pressure Dublin put them under during the league final had me thinking otherwise.

I did see signs that they were rediscovering their usual behaviour in Wexford Park back in June before they came alive in the provincial decider. It helped that Dublin were the opponents again.

All the usual suspects, many absent throughout the league, performed and I expect more of the same tomorrow. That means the axis of Shefflin-Power-Larkin will prove almost unstoppable when they attack all at once. Tommy Walsh also seems to be back to his dominant best.

Concerns about the full back line have been allayed for the time being but it helped that Paul Murphy was outstanding at corner back and Brian Hogan so impressive in front of them. Without Ryan O’Dwyer’s presence, Dublin were unable to expose this supposed weaknesses. Waterford can and must.

That means you don’t play balls out to the corners, like Dublin did. It must be clever, accurate passing that drops in the area that goals are scored – easier said than done.

It should come down to ball winners. That means Kilkenny will win unless guys like Stephen Molumphy, Kevin Moran, Prendergast and Brick produce a defiant aerial display not seen from them before in Croke Park. Not collectively anyway. And Mullane must be at his best. Only then will it be close.

With respect to Waterford and Dublin, I will be trying to assess the progress of Kilkenny and Tipperary in comparison to 2010. Because I believe they will both progress to the All-Ireland final for the third year running.

But only after a long, hard-fought 140 minutes of intense hurling.