Without much more ambitious action, the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change “will be increasingly devastating” across the planet, according to a multi-agency report co-ordinated by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
In response to the findings, UN secretary general António Guterres said “climate impacts are heading into uncharted territories of destruction”.
What is known as the United in Science report, which is issued annually, includes contributions on latest trends from leading climate science and meteorological bodies.
The 2022 report issued on Tuesday shows greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise to record highs while fossil fuel emission rates are above pre-pandemic levels after a temporary drop due to lockdowns.
The ambition of emissions reduction pledges for 2030 “needs to be seven times higher to be in line with the 1.5 degree goal of the Paris Agreement”, it concludes.
The number of weather, climate and water-related disasters has increased by a factor of five over the last 50 years, it confirms, with daily losses totalling more than €200 million.
[ World Meteorological Organisation’s climate report: Key messagesOpens in new window ]
The report highlights a glaring lack of climate resilience; less than half of countries in the world have reported the existence of multi-hazard early warning systems, with coverage particularly low in Africa, least developed countries and small island developing states. It backs the case for them to be provided in every country within five years.
Against a backdrop of the last seven years being the warmest on record, the report finds a 48 per cent chance that during at least one year in the next five years annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5 degrees higher than 1850-1900 average.
Meanwhile, as global warming increases, “tipping points” in the climate system cannot be ruled out, it adds. “Cities that host billions of people and are responsible for up to 70 per cent of human-caused emissions will face increasing socio-economic impacts.”
The most vulnerable populations will suffer most, says the report which details examples of extreme weather this year worsened by a warming world.
“Floods, droughts, heatwaves, extreme storms and wildfires are going from bad to worse, breaking records with alarming frequency. Heatwaves in Europe. Colossal floods in Pakistan. Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa and the US. There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. They are the price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction,” Mr Guterres said.
The report “shows climate impacts heading into uncharted territory of destruction. Yet each year we double-down on this fossil fuel addiction, even as symptoms get rapidly worse,” he added.
“Climate science is increasingly able to show that many of the extreme weather events we are experiencing have become more likely and more intense due to human-induced climate change,” said WMO secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas.
“We have seen this repeatedly this year, with tragic effect. It is more important than ever that we scale up action on early warning systems to build resilience to current and future climate risks in vulnerable communities. That is why WMO is spearheading a drive to ensure ‘early warnings for all’ in the next five years,” he added.
The report is a shameful reminder that resilience-building is the neglected half of the climate equation, Mr Guterres said in a video message. “It is a scandal that developed countries have failed to take adaptation seriously, and shrugged off their commitments to help the developing world.”
The Glasgow decision at Cop26 last year urged developed countries to collectively provide $40 billion dollars a year in new adaptation finance. “This must be delivered in full, as a starting point,” he said, “Adaptation finance needs are set to grow to at least $300 billion dollars a year by 2030.”
Mr Guterres said wealthy G20 countries needed to force the changes needed, notably the provision of adaptation finance through multilateral development banks — as they were the shareholders of these financial institutions.
“All countries must boost their national climate ambition every year, until we are on track. The G20, which is responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions, must lead the way,” he believed.
That meant, he suggested, no new coal plants being built, with coal phased out by 2030 for OECD countries, and by 2040 for all others. “The current fossil fuel free-for-all must end now. It is a recipe for permanent climate chaos and suffering.”
The report includes input from the WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch and World Weather Research Programmes; the UN Environment Programme, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the World Climate Research Programme, Global Carbon Project; UK Met Office, and the Urban Climate Change Research Network.
