Governments must look to increase capacity to house more Ukrainian refugees as prolonged war and winter will force millions more to flee Ukraine, a top United Nations official has said.
Kelly Clements, deputy high commissioner at the UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, said host countries must take “a more medium-term look” at providing further housing for refugees.
Speaking on a visit to Dublin, she expressed concerns that host countries under strain to house current flows of Ukrainians may not have the capacity to accommodate more refugees amid domestic housing shortages, but urged them to find ways to provide more.
“We stand ready to support in terms of providing advice,” she said.
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“We would certainly want to be able to provide the advice and see governments, whether it’s in Ireland or in other parts of this continent or elsewhere, take additional steps to try to increase the capacity before saying we are full.”
She was speaking to The Irish Times before the Government announced that it could not guarantee that it would be able to accommodate all Ukrainian refugees and international protection applicants next week because the Citywest transit hub in Dublin had reached capacity.
The State is already accommodating more than 58,000 people, including 42,000 Ukrainians and 16,000 applicants seeking international protection.
“We know that local authorities and governments are doing the very best that they can and we also know that help is needed, technical support is needed and perhaps a different approach in terms of looking at the resources available in communities is needed,” said Ms Clements.
The high-ranking UN official said more intensified fighting, colder weather and Russian attacks on energy supplies could displace a further four million Ukrainians this winter.
The UNHCR said that in its contingency planning for a worst-case scenario a further two million Ukrainians could be internally displaced and a further two million may leave the country.
The war has already displaced 6.2 million people within Ukraine and a further 7.7 million people have fled to Europe as refugees.
“We expect there will be other Ukrainians that will be leaving Ukraine in the weeks and months to come either because the bombs continue to drop or because they are not able to keep themselves or their families warm,” Ms Clements told The Irish Times.
The numbers registering for temporary protection in the EU stands at 4.4 million but is increasing steadily as Ukrainians accept the war could last longer than expected, she said.
The Russian invasion has pushed the number of forcibly displaced people in the world over 100 million, the largest number in history, according to the UNHCR.
“In the early days, there was a reluctance on the part of some Ukrainians of registering protection because they thought they could go back relatively quickly,” said Ms Clements, a US citizen who has been working on refugee and displacement issues for three decades.
“As the war has not only dragged on, but intensified in some areas, they have realised that at least for the next three or four months, they are going to be staying right where they are.”
This week, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had destroyed nearly a third of the country’s power stations, leaving it vulnerable in the coming winter months.
Ms Clements said the coming harsh winter in Ukraine would lead to further demands for accommodation both within Ukraine and in host countries as energy supply cuts and damage to housing lead to further movements of people inside and out of Ukraine.
There were also displaced people within Ukraine and evacuees from war-torn eastern Ukraine, which remains difficult to access, who may yet choose to leave the country, she said.
“We are starting the cold period in Ukraine and when I was in Ukraine just a couple of months ago, the vice prime minister with whom I met there in support of the government’s response said there is no place colder than Ukraine when it comes to winter,” she said.
Countries around Ukraine such as Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, have capacity now but may need much more support, depending on what happens next.
“We try to prepare for the worst and hope for the best in terms of what may what may come,” she said.
Asked about the potential for a growing negative response to Ukrainian refugees, Ms Clements said increased resources were needed not just for refugees but for host countries.
Refugees also needed to be seen for the value they can bring to a country as sources of skills and labour, allowing them to be self-sufficient in the communities they seek refuge in.
“If that’s put to effect, then the potential to go into this divided or toxic-type discussion about refugees is less,” she said.
Ms Clements said the UNHCR had an annual budget of $10.7 billion, half of which is dedicated to 12 operations, including Syria, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Yemen and Bangladesh.
Some operations were at 40 per cent of the “where they need to be in terms of us being able to meet needs” and that the agency was trying to find $700 million before the end of the year.
The Irish Government was an exception in terms of increasing support to the UNHCR,” she said. “But, unfortunately, they are an exception.”
