The continuation of climate policies implemented by the almost 200 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement “will lead to a catastrophic [global] temperature rise of up to 3.1 degrees”, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned in its latest “emissions gap” report.
It is still technically possible to meet the key Paris goal of containing global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial times, it concludes, “but only with a G20-led massive global mobilisation to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today”.
G20 countries are the world’s wealthiest countries, and were responsible for 77 per cent of global emissions in 2023.
Current 2030 commitments are not being met, and even if they are met temperature rise will only be limited to 2.6 to 2.8 degrees, it adds – making for increasing catastrophic impacts on the planet.
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“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5-degree goal will soon be dead,” said UNEP director Inger Andersen.
“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming Cop29 talks to increase action now...and then go all-out to get on a 1.5-degree pathway. Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.”
She said every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of “lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot”.
UNEP provides a yearly review of the gap between where global emissions are heading with countries’ current commitments – set out in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – and where they ought to be to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. It also explores ways to bridge the gap. This year’s report feeds into negotiations at Cop29 in Azerbaijan next month, before a new round of NDCs is presented at Cop30 in Brazil next year.
The “No more hot air... please!” report finds a failure to increase ambition in new NDCs, and even starting to deliver immediately on current NDCs would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees over the course of this century. “This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.”
The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this makes a marginal difference to overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the UNEP says the delay in action means 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5 degrees, and 4 per cent for 2 degrees. The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.
Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver about 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.
“This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the Cop28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems,” the UNEP says.
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