EuropeAnalysis

Mark Rutte’s reputation as a consensus builder will be tested as soon as he takes charge at Nato

Dutch pragmatist faces a formidable to-do list

Mark Rutte became known in diplomatic circles as 'The Trump Whisperer' for the way he gently talked down the then US president in 2018. Photograph: Simon Wohlfahrt/Bloomberg

Peter Cluskey's face
Peter Cluskey in The Hague
Mon Jun 24 2024 - 17:52

It is testament to the skills of former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte as an adroit handler of political relationships that he’s managed to persuade a fractious 32-state Nato to back his candidacy for secretary general unanimously.

The alliance has no formal naming process. As a pretty high bar, unanimity is the sole requirement. The final piece in Rutte’s seven-month campaign fell into place on Thursday evening when his last serious opponent, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis, withdrew from the race.

By the weekend, Rutte (57) was being hailed by outgoing secretary general Jens Stoltenberg as a “friend” who “believes strongly in the transatlantic bond”, adding: “Nato will be in very good hands given that Mark Rutte is going to be the next secretary general”.

Although the organisation celebrates its 75th anniversary at a summit in Washington DC next month, there are suggestions that Nato ambassadors may make an announcement this week, allowing Rutte to join the celebrations as heir-designate.

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A man who once said he saw himself as “a manager” rather than “a visionary”, Rutte will be the fourth Dutch leader of Nato, following Dirk Stikker (1961-1964), Joseph Luns (1971-1984) and former foreign minister Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (2004-2009).

Formerly leader of the centre-right VVD party, Rutte served four consecutive terms as Dutch PM from 2010 to 2023. He will take office in October – or perhaps earlier – and his reputation as a conservative consensus builder will be tested immediately.

Nato’s 2023 Vilnius summit reaffirmed its commitment not only that Ukraine would become a full member of the alliance but that, given its rapid progress towards military and technological interoperability, the facts on the ground had moved beyond the need for a membership action plan.

So, at the top of his in-tray will be inducting Kyiv into the fold, planning to defeat Russia militarily, reinforcing defence and deterrence across the alliance and helping to define the organisation’s role in dealing with China.

Beyond that formidable to-do list will be what Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Centre, calls “Trump-proofing” the alliance in anticipation of a possible second term in the Oval Office for Donald Trump.

By that, Rizzo means reprising the skills Rutte demonstrated at a Nato summit attended by Trump in 2018, when the Dutchman managed to gently talk down the president after he warned that the US would “go its own way” unless Europe spent more on defence.

It was for that star performance that Rutte became known in diplomatic circles as “The Trump Whisperer” or “the man who put the pin back in the hand grenade”.

Said one observer: “He knows how to handle big egos by praising them when necessary, although he doesn’t appear to have one himself. He listens and he acts. He’s effective, an old-fashioned Dutch pragmatist.”

That pragmatism made him the second longest-sitting prime minister in Europe after Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who finally lifted his veto on Rutte’s Nato appointment last week in return for a written commitment that Hungary would remain apart from Nato’s continuing support for Ukraine.

Combined with that pragmatism is a willingness to take strategic decisions, showing leadership by sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in January 2023 and committing F16 fighter jets months later.

Russia’s aggression was an existential threat not to Ukraine alone, he noted in a speech at the Sorbonne in 2022.

“War has returned to Europe”, he said.

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