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German anxiety rises over deepening commitment to Ukraine conflict

Images of German-made tanks being deployed by Ukraine inside Russia’s Kursk region raises concern and divides political opinion

A German-made Leopard 2A6 tank included among 30 examples of military equipment captured from the Ukrainian army and displayed by the Russian ministry of defence at Victory Park in Moscow. Photograph: Sefa Karacan/Anadolu via Getty Images
Derek Scally's picture
Derek Scally in Berlin
Sat Aug 10 2024 - 08:49

It took almost a year for German chancellor Olaf Scholz to heed Kyiv’s most urgent war call.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Berlin was quick to supply helmets, medical equipment and light armaments. But it wasn’t until January 2023, after months of outright refusals, that Germany transferred its first tanks.

Now Ukraine’s second-largest arms supplier, Germany has since then handed over 18 Leopard 2 battle tanks and 120 Marder vehicles.

The tank transfers marked the most drastic shift to date in Germany’s so-called “Zeitenwende” or watershed in postwar strategic thinking.

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For decades, Germany’s “Nie wieder” or never again narrative applied equally to murdered European Jews and Russian civilians. The idea of German soldiers or tanks ever touching Russian soil again was taboo.

That’s why fuzzy images this week of what appear to be at least three Marders pushing into Russia’s Kursk region has sparked anxiety – and divided political opinion – in Germany.

While Scholz, currently on holiday, has yet to comment, a government spokeswoman said Berlin had “taken note of conflicting reports”.

“The federal government has no information of its own on this matter but it is monitoring the situation closely,” the spokeswoman added.

The Marder images come after Berlin’s last significant strategic shift in May, when it dropped its opposition to Ukrainian troops using German-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russian territory.

Even without independent confirmation, the Marder images have divided opinion within the ruling Scholz coalition.

Nervous leftists in his Social Democratic Party said they were not aware that such an incursion was permitted with German vehicles.

By contrast, Marcus Faber of the liberal Free Democratic Party, a junior coalition partner, saw no problem with reports of the Marder incursion into Russian territory.

“With the transfer to Ukraine, these are Ukraine weapons – something that applies to all equipment – even tanks,” said Faber, head of the Bundestag defence committee.

“Russia’s attack on Ukraine has made the territory of both countries a war zone, and the use of weapons is covered by international law.”

This is not Russia’s first encounter with German tanks in this war. Last April it put on display the wreckage of German tanks captured in Ukraine as part of an outdoor war trophies exhibition in Moscow.

President Vladimir Putin has warned repeatedly, most recently in June, that deploying western – in particular German – weapons against Russia would be a “dangerous step”.

Prof Carla Masala, of Munich’s Bundeswehr armed forces university, suggested the reported Marder incursions into Russian territory will have “Putin foaming at the mouth”.

“He will see it as an affront, but will not react,” Masala predicted to the Bild tabloid.

Just how much military assistance for Ukraine is wise,and affordable, has become a key policy battleground in two eastern German states – Saxony and Thuringia – that choose new parliaments on September 1st.

On Friday, Saxon premier Michael Kretschmer broke ranks with his colleagues in the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Hoping to secure a new term in office, he called time on German military aid for Ukraine and demanded a cut in defence budgets which “had got out of hand”, in favour of social spending.

“We can no longer provide funds for weapons to Ukraine so that these weapons are used up and achieve nothing,” he said. “Everything has to be in proportion.”

Kretschmer’s CDU has a narrow poll lead in Saxony with 34 per cent support, just four points ahead of Alternative for Germany. Its pro-Russian and “peace” rhetoric is proving popular with Saxon voters, many of whom grew up and worked in socialist East Germany.

Also peeling away CDU supporters is the BSW, a new political party led by hard left, pro-Russian politician Sahra Wagenknecht. On Friday she described the Marder reports as “the next red line to be crossed”.

“This is a highly dangerous development,” said Wagenknecht, warning that Germany was “being dragged even deeper into the war ... increasing the danger of a major European war”.

Within months the BSW has attracted11 per cent support in Saxony, and the party will be a wild card in next month’s election. But Wagenknecht’s party faces firm pushback – particularly on Russia.

“The BSW positions on Ukraine sound like they have been dictated by the Kremlin,” said Marianne Birthler, a former East German civil rights activist.

Germany’s renewed debate over military aid to Ukraine comes as Rheinmetall, maker of Leopard and Marder tanks, revealed a 49 per cent jump in its year-on-year turnover to €2.2 billion.

“We’ve never grown so quickly,” said Armin Papperger, chief executive of Rheinmetall, predicting an additional €1 billion in turnover in this and coming years.

Rheinmetall said its record results were “driven largely by business with the armed forces in Germany and partner states in the EU and Nato, as well as aid for Ukraine”.