China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, arrives in Dublin on Sunday as China and the European Union are reassessing their relationship in the light of Donald Trump’s actions since his return to the White House last month. Although Beijing and Brussels remain divided on everything from trade policy to the war in Ukraine, there are signs that a reset could be in the offing after four tense and difficult years.
In a speech to European ambassadors last week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would continue to “derisk” its economic relationship with China.
“But there is also room to engage constructively with China – and find solutions in our mutual interest. And I think we can find agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties. It is a fine line that we need to walk. But it can lead us to a fairer and more balanced relationship with one of the world’s economic giants. And that can make sense for Europe,” she said.
China’s public statements have stressed that with “the world turning into a less stable and certain place”, its relationship with the EU is more strategically important than ever. In private, Chinese officials are urging their European counterparts to acknowledge the new geopolitical reality by engaging with Beijing as a more predictable economic partner than Washington.
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Beijing wants the EU to revive the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) that was agreed in principle in December 2020 after seven years of negotiations but put on ice a few months later. The commission unofficially paused the ratification process in March 2021 after China imposed sanctions on a number of MEPs, members of the European Council’s Political and Security Committee, some members of European national parliaments, academics and think tanks.
Beijing views Dublin as one of the friendlier European capitals and will hope that Ireland will be a voice in Brussels in favour of more engagement with China
The Chinese action was in response to the EU’s imposition of sanctions on four Chinese citizens and one entity it believed to be involved in human rights violations of the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang. Beijing would like a mutual lifting of sanctions but the EU is insisting that China should unilaterally lift its sanctions against European individuals and entities.
If Beijing does lift the sanctions unilaterally, Brussels is ready to talk about reviving the CAI, although the commission cannot guarantee that the agreement will be approved by the council and the parliament. And the EU will insist that China demonstrates its good faith in following through on the agreement’s commitments to offer a more level playing field for European companies in the Chinese market.
The biggest factor in the deterioration of relations between the EU and China in recent years has been Beijing’s economic and diplomatic support for Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. But if Trump’s talks with Putin, however unwelcome in Europe, facilitate a pause in the fighting, Ukraine will decline in salience as an issue in EU-China relations.
Ireland voted last year in support of the European Commission’s move to apply extra tariffs to Chinese electric vehicles, while most EU member states either voted against it or abstained. But Beijing still views Dublin as one of the friendlier European capitals and will hope that Ireland, as one of the EU’s strongest advocates for free trade, will be a voice in Brussels in favour of more engagement with China.
Ireland is unusual among EU member states in enjoying a trade surplus with China and recent years have seen the arrival of a number of Chinese companies into the country. But Wuxi Biologics sold its vaccine plant in Dundalk to Merck last month following pressure from the United States government.
