German politics faces a new and uncertain era after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a record 44 per cent support in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
However, political deadlock is looming in the state parliament in Magdeburg as initial projections left the AfD on 39 seats, three short of a majority, and no other coalition grouping close to power.
“We achieved what we wanted and have made history in this state,” said Ulrich Siegmund, AfD state leader. “People have sent a clear political signal in Saxony-Anhalt: we cannot go on like this.”
Minutes after polls closed, the 35-year-old leader pivoted away from a campaign promise to rule only with an absolute majority. He told German television he was open to working with anyone open to “fundamental change” in the state, southwest of Berlin.
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After an emotional and polarised campaign, the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) saw its support halved to 17.8 per cent. That leaves it well short of a majority for its outgoing three-way coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).
“Some people call this a dark day for Saxony-Anhalt, but this is democracy,” said Sven Schulze, CDU leader and outgoing prime minister in Saxony-Anhalt. Close to tears at times, and with an eye on a record 76 per cent turnout, Schulze told supporters: “The people have sent a signal and it is now for those with responsibility, in Saxony-Anhalt and beyond, to read the runes.”
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That was a clear swipe at politicians two hours away in Berlin, as was a dramatic post-election poll. Some 87 per cent of Saxon-Anhalt voters are dissatisfied with the CDU-led federal government of chancellor Friedrich Merz. Just 9 per cent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt are satisfied with his work after just over a year in power.
While Merz remained out of sight on Sunday evening, leading CDU officials conceded big challenges lie ahead.
“This is a turning point for our country,” conceded Thorsten Frei, CDU parliamentary party leader in the Bundestag parliament. “We have never had a situation like this before.”
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On Sunday evening CDU, SPD and Green leaders stood by their refusal to work with the AfD, classified by state intelligence as a far-right extremist party. But their so-called “firewall policy” could be circumvented by the AfD as it seeks other paths to power.
Much will depend on the fate of the BSW, a left-wing populist and pro-Russian breakaway party from the opposition Left Party (Linke). Early projections put the BSW on 5.1 per cent, just over the hurdle for parliamentary representation. If in parliament, BSW leaders have signalled they could back the AfD on an issue-by-issue basis and – crucially – abstain in the vote for state parliament, sinking the majority required for Ulrich Siegmund to become the first AfD state prime minister.
Claudia Wittig, BSW leader in Saxony-Anhalt, said it would be “completely undemocratic” for the AfD not to be involved in some way in the next state government.
If the BSW falls short of parliamentary representation, that recalculates parliamentary majorities and all eyes will shift to the hard-left Linke. It took 9 per cent support on Sunday and speculation is growing that it could enter an informal support arrangement with a CDU-led coalition. That path is considered risky as the CDU has a formal ban on political co-operation with the AfD and Linke.
Though one final wild card – postal votes – could rewrite the final outcome, the AfD insisted on Sunday evening that, 13 years after its foundation, it had changed German politics for good.
“People want a political change in this country,” said Alice Weidel, AfD federal leader. “The CDU will never win an election in this country again.”
