Middle EastAnalysis

Israel weighing response to rocket attack that left 12 children dead and many more wounded

Jewish state exhausted after almost 10 months of Gaza fighting but Israeli officials expect ‘limited but significant’ military operation

Elders and mourners carry the coffin of 11-year-old Guevara Ibrahim killed in a reported strike from Lebanon two days earlier, during his funeral in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan on July 29th. Photograph: Jalaa MareyAFP via Getty Images
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Mon Jul 29 2024 - 14:53

A fierce Israeli response to Saturday’s rocket strike on the football pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the occupied Golan Heights, which left 12 children dead and dozens more wounded, is a matter of time.

“The blood of Israeli children is not, and will never be, forfeit. I reviewed the response plans. This concerns Hizbullah–Iran’s proxy in the region,” said defence minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday. “Hizbullah won’t be cleared [of its responsibility] for this incident even with its ridiculous denials. It fired the rocket. It will bear the consequences and it will pay a heavy price for its actions.”

Unnamed Israeli officials were quoted as saying that they expected the military operation to be “limited but significant”.

An Israeli attack risks a counterattack, which in turn could lead to another counterattack and the danger that Iran will be drawn into the fighting, as well as pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

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Israel is exhausted after almost 10 months of fighting in Gaza and has still to secure a deal to free the more than 100 hostages in captivity. Israel is also aware that Hizbullah, bracing for an Israeli attack, has already largely abandoned its positions across Lebanon and Syria. In weighing its options therefore, Israel (despite bellicose comments from its leaders) wants to avoid a full-scale war that could plunge the entire region into chaos with devastating results.

[ Israel vows to hit Hizbullah after rocket kills 12 on football field ]

The most likely options for the Israeli military are a limited but “photogenic” attack on Lebanese infrastructure, a strategic Hizbullah arms depot, a well-known site that has not been attacked yet and killing high-ranking Hizbullah officials.

An Israeli strike on targets in Beirut is a distinct possibility and Gallant had already issued a warning earlier in the war alluding to such a scenario if Israel determines that Hizbullah has crossed a red line. Hizbullah controls extensive parts of Beirut and the Israeli military can attack those areas with precise munitions — an attack that will be heard and felt across Lebanon’s capital and not just in the Dahiya neighbourhood.

US special envoy Amos Hochstein spoke with Gallant on Saturday and shared his concern that Israel might attack Beirut, warning of the possibility of civilian casualties and that the situation might spiral out of control if Israel were to attack the Lebanese capital.

Israel has refrained from attacking Lebanese civilian infrastructure that indirectly also serves Hizbullah, such as significant bridges, motorways, power plants, airports and seaports. Bombing such targets might signal to the government in Beirut that the time has come to rein in Hizbullah before all Lebanese citizens begin to suffer the consequences.