Middle EastAnalysis

Hizbullah leader holds back on retaliation against Israel and urges ceasefire in Gaza

Hassan Nasrallah vows response for assassination of strategist Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, but says it will be incremental and gradual

Women in Lebanon take part in a ceremony on August 6th to mark the first week since Israel's killing of Hizbullah's top commander Fuad Shukr. Photograph: Chris McGrath/Getty Images
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Michael Jansen
Thu Aug 15 2024 - 20:28

Lebanese Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah has adopted a “slowly, slowly” strategy on retaliation for Israel’s assassination last month of the movement’s military strategist Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

While vowing a response, Mr Nasrallah has said it will be incremental and gradual rather than directly confrontational. Hizbullah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said the response “will inevitably come”, adding that the delay “is a calculated part of the resistance’s performance and its management of the battle”.

Mr Nasrallah’s policy is in line with Iran’s cautious approach to retaliation. Neither Hizbullah nor its ally Iran want to be drawn into a regional war and both seek to de-escalate by urging a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for renouncing a big retaliation.

Lebanese caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati told visiting Israeli-born US envoy Amos Hochstein on Wednesday there was a “need to press Israel to halt its attacks and threats”. Mr Mikati said “the gateway for the solution is a ceasefire in Gaza and the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions, especially resolution 1701″. It calls for demilitarisation of the Israel-Lebanon border zone, meaning the withdrawal of Hizbullah fighters, Lebanese army deployment in the zone and strengthening UN peacekeepers along the frontier.

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Following a meeting with parliamentary speaker and Hizbullah partner Nabih Berri, Mr Hochstein said: “The framework agreement [is] on the table for a Gaza ceasefire, and he and I agreed there is no more time to waste and there’s no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay.”

Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant has warned that forceful Hizbullah retaliation could “drag Lebanon into paying extremely heavy prices”. Hizbullah cannot afford to provoke Israel politically or militarily. Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered a political and economic crisis which has plunged 44 per cent of Lebanese into poverty, according to the World Bank.

As a key actor on the Lebanese political scene, Hizbullah shares the blame. The militant group entered parliament in 1992, has held cabinet posts, and between 2018 and 2022 it and its allies had a majority in the chamber of deputies.

In a new war with Israel scores of Hizbullah fighters would be killed and wounded and its arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets, 2,000 drones and anti-tank shells would be depleted or destroyed. This could undermine Hizbullah’s argument that it must retain its weapons to maintain deterrence against attack. Weakening Iran’s most potent regional ally, Hizbullah, would weaken Iran.

Israel waged a 34-day war on Lebanon in 2006 after Hizbullah fighters attacked an Israeli border patrol. At least 1,200 Lebanese were killed, one million displaced and Lebanese infrastructure was damaged or destroyed; 165 Israelis were killed and up to 500,000 displaced. Since both Hizbullah and Israel have acquired more advanced weapons and upgraded their armed forces, another war could cost both sides greater casualties, devastation and displacement of civilians.